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РБК-DailyКипр захотел стать энергетическим узлом Восточного СредиземноморьяКипр рассчитывает в будущем стать альтернативным коридором поставок природного газа в Европу и энергетическим узлом Восточного Средиземноморья. teletrade.ru »
РБК-DailyКипр захотел стать энергетическим узлом Восточного СредиземноморьяКипр рассчитывает в будущем стать альтернативным коридором поставок природного газа в Европу и энергетическим узлом Восточного Средиземноморья. teletrade.ru »
Продолжим тему европейского предмаркета. Итак, налицо разнонаправленное движение сырьевых валют и европейских. Если к данной картине добавить металлы, в том числе и «золото», то она заблестит еще ярче. fibo.ru »
Retail sales in Slovakia decreased for the second consecutive month in September, data released by the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic showed Wednesday. news.instaforex.com »
Poland's manufacturing sector expanded for the fourth consecutive month in October, helped mainly by strong growth in export orders, survey data released by Markit Economics and HSBC Bank showed Monday.
The seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector rose to 53.4 in October from 53.1 in September. The index increased to the highest level since April 2011, and stayed above the no-change 50 mark for the fourth month in a row.
The upturn was driven primarily by a stronger increase in new orders, with export order growth climbing to a two-and-half year high. Export orders rose for the fifth month running in October.
In line with the rise in new business, manufacturing production rose for the fourth straight month, and at a historically strong rate. Manufacturers raised their workforces for the third consecutive month, in order to handle the increased workload.
Input price inflation faced by Polish goods producers rose to a 16-month high in October as firms reported higher prices for paper and rising tax burdens. Meanwhile, output prices decreased for the eleventh straight month.
Brazil's manufacturing sector expanded for the first time in four months in October, helped by a strong pick up in production, data from a survey by Markit Economics and HSBC Bank showed Friday.
The manufacturing purchasing managers' index, adjusted for seasonal variations, advanced to 50.2 in October from 49.9 in September. Readings above 50 signal growth, and those below indicate decline.
Brazilian companies raised their production levels in October, amid expectations of better economic conditions and forecasts of stronger client demand. Production growth was the quickest since May.
New business inflows stabilized during the month, following three successive months of contraction. Export orders, however, fell at the fastest pace since July.
Meanwhile, manufacturers reduced their workforce numbers further in October, stretching the current sequence of job shedding to seven months.
Elsewhere, a report released by statistical office IBGE today showed that Brazil's industrial production increased 2 percent year-on-year in September, after falling 1.2 percent in August. Economists had forecast a 3 percent growth for October.
Sequentially, seasonally adjusted industrial production moved up 0.7 percent, after staying flat in August. The monthly growth rate was forecast to be 1.3 percent.
Germany's import prices decreased for the ninth successive month in September, and the rate of fall matched economists' forecast, latest data showed Thursday.
The import price index decreased 2.8 percent in September from the same month of last year, marking the ninth fall in a row, the Federal Statistical Office said. The outcome matched economists' forecast. In August, prices had declined 3.4 percent.
Contributing to the decline of the headline index, energy prices fell 6.3 percent annually, and metal costs declined 9.7 percent.
Import prices, excluding petroleum and petroleum products, were lower by 2.3 percent than in September 2012, data showed.
Sequentially, import prices stayed unchanged in September, after rising 0.1 percent in August. Expectations were for a 0.1 percent rise in September.
The statistical office further noted that Germany's export prices decreased 1 percent year-on-year in September, as they did in August. On a month-on-month basis, export prices stayed flat for the second straight month in September.
Spain's economy returned to growth in the third quarter, after staying mired in a recession for more than two year, preliminary data from the statistical office INE showed Wednesday.
Gross domestic product expanded 0.1 percent during the quarter ended September, reversing the 0.1 percent sequential drop in the previous period.
On a yearly basis, the economy remained in negative territory due to the weakness in domestic demand, but the rate of contraction slowed in the third quarter. GDP was down 1.2 percent annually, following last quarter's 1.6 percent decline.
Both quarterly and annual figures matched the flash estimate released by the Bank of Spain on October 23.
Profits earned by Chinese industrial firms grew at a slower pace in September, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics revealed Sunday.
Profits rose 18.4 percent year-on-year to CNY 558.9 billion in September. This was weaker than a 24.2 percent growth seen in August.
During the first nine months of the year, industrial profits increased 13.5 percent from the same period last year to CNY 4.05 trillion.
Meanwhile, China's cabinet, also known as the State Council, said it will streamline the corporate registration system by removing some registered capital requirements for establishing new firms.
Eurozone firms that are delaying the changeover to a new payment system risk disruptions, European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said Thursday.
The deadline for euro area countries to migrate to the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) credit transfer and direct debit schemes is set at February 1, 2014. The SEPA initiative aims to overcome technical, legal and market barriers between countries in order to create a single market for retail payments in euro.
Thirty-three countries in Europe will participate in SEPA. With only 100 days left to go, the changeover process is now entering a critical phase, the central bank said.
In its second report on the SEPA migration process, released on Thursday, the ECB said that many key stakeholders have decided to migrate only in the last quarter of 2013, or even later.
This approach generates operational risks and limits the ability to tackle any issues or unexpected developments that might arise during the changeover period, the central bank cautioned.
"I have said this before and will repeat it: everybody has to be ready on 1 February 2014 or risk disruptions in their individual handling of payment orders," Coeure said.
The ECB report pointed out some of the risks posed by a "big bang" late migration that include capacity issues and bottlenecks on the side of the providers and software vendors at the end of the year. Further, end users may find themselves short of time to adapt to the payment service providers' new standards as well as to test their own systems sufficiently, the report said.
The migration to the SEPA credit transfer scheme is progressing fell, the ECB report said. A few countries in the euro area have already completed the process, while many others are progressing at a swift pace, it added. However, many businesses have delayed the switch to the SEPA direct debt scheme till the last few months before the deadline.
"A successful migration will require considerable effort, so it is important to further strengthen communication and cooperation among key stakeholders and competent authorities at the national level", Coeure said.
Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research: -Today INSEE business survey confirms signs that economic activity carries on bottoming out in Q4. news.instaforex.com »
Switzerland's trade surplus beat expectations in September, the latest figures from the Federal Customs Administrations showed Tuesday.
The trade surplus for September was CHF 2.5 billion compared with an expected CHF 2 billion surplus. In the July-September period, the trade surplus was CHF 6.9 billion.
Exports grew 2.2 percent year-on-year in nominal terms to CHF 16.9 billion in September. Meanwhile, imports declined 2.6 percent to CHF 14.4 billion. In real terms, exports grew 5.3 percent annually and imports fell 0.9 percent.
In the third quarter, exports grew 0.7 percent year-on-year in real terms, while imports fell 2.2 percent.
Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research:
-We expect Taiwan's industrial production to remain in the contraction zone in September after the disappointing reading in August (data to be released on 23rd October). Export orders, which usually lead industrial production by one month or more, disappointed in August, growing by just 0.5% yoy. The September trade data served as another reminder of the painfully slow recovery of the island's economy.
-Exports contracted sharply by 7% yoy, slowing from +3.6% yoy in August. The base effect certainly played a role, but the underlying trend of external demand also failed to strengthen further. By destination, export growth to China slumped the most to -10.9% yoy from +3.6% yoy in the previous month.
-By goods, the contribution from machineries & electrical equipments (ME) to headline growth fell from +2.5ppt to -0.5ppt. Hence, the chance of getting another soft data point for production seems fairly high.
news.instaforex.com »Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research:
-US President Obama signed off the short-term deal agreed overnight by the US Congress to immediately re-open and fund the government until 15 January 2014 and raise the debt ceiling until 7 February 2014.
-This implies that we should finally have a read on the September employment and retail sales report over the next four days which will be the next big event for investors. Asian equities were trading positive following US stocks as relief greeted the US compromise, but the USD is trading lower as UST 10y yields slip to 2.65%.
-The short-term nature of the approved bill (hostilities may resume in the new year, budget talks now set for 13 December) may not be enough for agencies like Fitch to drop their 'negative watch' which implies that a downgrade could still come within six months.
Retail sales data from the U.K. is the main news due from Europe on Thursday, headlining a light day for European economic news.
At 3.30 am ET, Dutch statistical office is scheduled to release the unemployment figures for September. The jobless rate is tipped to rise to 8.7 percent from 8.6 percent recorded a month earlier. Statistics Sweden is also due to publish the job market data at 3.30 am ET.
The European Central Bank is slated to release the Eurozone's current account balance for August at 4 am ET.
The Office for National Statistics is due to announce retail sales statistics at 4.30 am ET. Sales, including auto fuel, is forecast to increase 0.4 percent month-on-month in September.
At 5 am ET, Eurozone construction output data from Eurostat is due. Producer price figures from Portugal is expected at 6 am ET.
Poland's central bank is scheduled to release the minutes of its October monetary policy meeting at 8 am ET.
German local courts reported a total of 70,990 requests for the opening of insolvency proceedings in the first half of 2013, data from the Federal Statistical Office revealed Friday. news.instaforex.com »
South Africa's manufacturing production rose at a significantly slower pace in August, and the growth rate was far below economists' forecast, latest data showed Thursday.
Manufacturing production edged up 0.2 percent in August from a year earlier, after expanding strongly by 5.5 percent in July, Statistics South Africa said. The expected growth rate was 1.2 percent.
The weakening of the output growth mainly reflected a 25 percent fall in the production of motor vehicles, parts and accessories and other transport equipment. Production of textiles, clothing, leather and footwear dropped by 0.9 percent.
Meanwhile, production in the food and beverages industry advanced 1.7 percent from August last year, and output of wood, wood products, paper, and publishing and printing articles rose by 6.4 percent.
On a monthly basis, seasonally adjusted manufacturing production fell sharply by 3.6 percent in August, which was faster than the 2 percent fall economists had forecast.
During the three months ended August, factory production increased 0.2 percent from the preceding three-month period, data showed.
Portugal's merchandise trade shortfall widened in the June-August period as imports increased at a faster pace than exports, data released by the National Statistics Institute showed Wednesday.
The balance of trade for the three months ended August was a deficit of EUR2.41 billion, bigger than the EUR2.24 billion shortfall recorded a year earlier.
Merchandise exports increased 2.3 percent annually to EUR11.63 billion at the end of August. Shipments to the European Union (EU) countries and the Non-EU market grew 2.1 percent and 2.8 percent respectively.
Imports grew 3.1 percent from last year to EUR14.04 billion in the August quarter. Purchases from the EU climbed 4.4 percent year-on-year, and those from the external market stayed unchanged.
In the month of August, Portugal's exports stayed unchanged from the preceding month, while imports decreased by 3.5 percent, data showed.
Latvia's industrial production decreased in August from last year, figures released by the Central Statistical Bureau showed Friday.
Industrial production, on a calendar-adjusted basis, decreased 3.5 percent year-on-year in August, reversing the previous month's 2.1 percent increase. In June, production had decreased by 0.4 percent.
The downturn in overall output was driven mainly by a 2.5 percent fall in manufacturing production, and a 7.9 percent decrease in the production of electricity and gas supply. Meanwhile, mining and quarrying production increased by 0.6 percent.
Sequentially, industrial production decreased a seasonally adjusted 2 percent in August, after gaining 1.7 percent in July, the agency said.
BERENBERG BANK: STRONG CONFIDENCE IN BRITISH BUSINESSES SUGGEST THAT THE UK ECONOMY HAS ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO END THE YEAR STRONGLY news.instaforex.com »
The ongoing strength of the British private sector, as indicated by the latest purchasing managers' surveys, points to a sharp pick-up in GDP growth in the third quarter, Capital Economics Chief UK Economist Vicky Redwood said Thursday.
Capital Economics forecasts that economic growth in the third quarter would comfortably match or exceeded the 0.7 percent growth recorded in the second quarter.
However, muted employment growth and subdued price pressures, as evidenced by the PMI surveys, suggest that the strong economic growth is unlikely to translate into a rapid fall in the unemployment rate, a pick-up in price pressures, or a near-term rise in official interest rates, the firm said.
According to Redwood, while retail sales and industrial production look set to beat the growth seen in the second quarter, the sharp widening of the trade deficit in July suggests that net trade will struggle to contribute to growth as it did in the June quarter.
Further, data from the three PMI surveys, comprising manufacturing, construction and services, suggest that the fourth quarter is starting on a strong note too, the economist said.
Survey data compiled by Markit Economics today showed that the purchasing managers' index for the UK service sector stayed well above the neutral mark in September, signaling stable growth momentum in the sector. At 60.3, the index was little changed from August's reading of 60.5.
The movement of the index over the third quarter as a whole shows that services output increased at a faster rate of 1.5 percent than 0.6 percent in the second quarter.
The European Central Bank on Wednesday decided to hold fire on rates, as any tightening will be premature and dampen early signs of recovery in the region.
The 23-member rate-setting council left the main refinancing rate unchanged at a record low 0.50 percent for the fifth month. The previous change in rate was in May, when it was lowered by a quarter point.
The bank held the marginal lending facility rate at 1 percent and the deposit rate was also left unchanged at zero.
The governing council gathered in Paris instead of its usual venue in Frankfurt and the meeting was brought forward to Wednesday as it is a public holiday in Germany on Thursday.
ECB Chief Draghi is set to hold the post meeting press conference at 8.30 am ET.
Although ECB Chief Mario Draghi recently hinted at long-term refinancing operation and measures needed to address rising money market rates, economists see no major announcement later today. The markets expects LTRO only later this year.
Given the doubts over the effectiveness of more LTROs though, other new measures to stimulate lending may eventually be needed to sustain the recovery, said Ben May, an economist at Capital Economics.
Money market rates have shown signs of rising recently on talks of Federal Reserve's "tapering" of bond purchases.
Elsewhere, Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta faces a confidence vote today. Italy's political instability and its huge debt burden will weigh on the nation's borrowing costs and will once again trigger talks of ECB's bond buying program.
Last month, the ECB upgraded its 2013 economic outlook for the euro area, to show a 0.4 percent contraction, compared to the 0.6 percent GDP decline estimated in June. However, the growth projection for 2014 was cut to 1 percent from 1.1 percent.
Inflationary pressure remained subdued in the 17-nation bloc, with inflation falling to the lowest since early 2010 in September. Inflation is forecast to average 1.5 percent this year.
The sharp decline in lending to private sector together with low inflation amid nascent recovery is expected to prompt the central bank to keep its interest rates low for an extended period.
Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research: -In September, the French INSEE business confidence index for the whole economy rose from 91 to 94. news.instaforex.com »
Switzerland's economic growth will likely accelerate at a faster rate than estimated earlier, supported by stable domestic demand and an improvement in exports as the Eurozone recovery strengthens, revised estimates released by the KOF Economic Institute showed Monday.
The agency forecasts that gross domestic product will grow at a faster rate of 1.9 percent this year than 1 percent in 2012. The revised outlook marks an improvement from the 1.4 percent gain the the firm had predicted earlier.
Further, growth is expected to accelerate to 2.1 percent next year, slightly faster than the 2 percent estimated earlier. Going ahead, growth is seen gathering further momentum, and the economy will expand 2.3 percent in 2015.
According to KOF, an upturn in Switzerland's exports will contribute significantly to the economy in the coming months, shifting the dynamics of growth from domestic demand towards foreign demand. The firms expects Swiss exports to rise 4.2 on average in 2014.
Consumer prices will likely drop further by 0.2 percent this year, but will reverse the falling trend by recording increases of 0.5 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively, in 2014 and 2015.
At the same time, unemployment will remain low in the coming months, but will hardly fall any further despite the positive economic developments.
KOF further noted that the economic environment will make it easier for the Swiss National Bank to end its zero interest rate policy and allow it to gradually start raising short-term interest rates again from 2015 onwards.
Spain's merchandise trade deficit declined significantly in July, supported by strong growth in exports, data released by the Commerce Ministry showed Friday.
Net trade for the month resulted in a deficit of EUR786.7 million, which was lower by 53.5 percent than in the same month of 2012.
Export of goods increased 1.3 percent annually to EUR19.86 billion during the month, and reached the highest level since records began. Shipments to the non-Eurozone destinations advanced 8.2 percent, while dispatches to the Eurozone decreased by 4.7 percent.
Meanwhile, the value of imports decreased by 3 percent year-on-year to EUR20.65 billion in July, the agency said.
During the first seven months of 2013, exports climbed 7 percent from the same period of last year, while imports dropped 3.1 percent. The outcome was an year-on-year fall in trade deficit by 67.5 percent to EUR6.61 billion.
The Australian dollar advanced against other major currencies in Asian deals on Monday, as sentiment improved after the U.S. and Russia reached deal to remove Syria's chemical weapons and Lawrence Summers pulled out from race to Fed's top post.
Summers on Sunday notified President Barack Obama that he was withdrawing his name from consideration to replace Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke when the latter's term expires at the end of January.
"I have reluctantly concluded that any possible confirmation process for me would be acrimonious and would not serve the interests of the Federal Reserve, the administration or ultimately, the interests of the nation's ongoing economic recovery," Summers wrote.
Vice Chair Janet Yellen, who favor a slower reduction of asset purchases, now becomes the clear-cut favorite for the job.
Over the weekend, the U.S. and Russia agreed on a deal to eliminate Syria's chemical weapons by mid-2014.
The framework deal requires Syria to furnish full details of its stockpile within a week. The U.S said that non-compliance, including unauthorized transfer, or any use of chemical weapons by anyone in Syria, the UN Security Council should impose measures under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.
The aussie appreciated to 0.9390 against the greenback, highest since June 19. The next resistance for the aussie-greenback pair lies at the 0.95 level. The pair was worth 0.9244 at yesterday's close.
The aussie that ended Friday's trading at 1.1369 against the NZ dollar advanced to a 4-day high of 1.1419. The aussie may face resistance around the 1.15 level.
New Zealand house sales dipped 3.4 percent to 6,548 in August, compared to the previous month, the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand said today. That follows the 0.5 percent contraction in July.
The aussie advanced to a 4-day high of 92.76 against the yen, up by 1.2 percent from last week's multi-day low of 91.69. On the upside, the aussie may probably seek resistance at the 93.6 level.
The aussie spiked up to more than 2-month high of 0.9680 against the loonie, which is up from Friday's closing quote of 0.9569. The aussie is likely to test resistance at the 0.98 level.
The aussie reached 1.4236 against the euro, a level unseen since July 24 and an increase of 1 percent from last week's close of 1.4381. The next upside target for the aussie lies at the 1.41 level.
Looking ahead, Eurozone final inflation for August is due in the European session.
The U.S. industrial production and Canada existing home sales for August are set for release in the New York session.
The U. S. jobless claims dropped to 292,000 the week ended September 7th from 323,000 in the previous week. Economists expected claims to increase to 330,000 in the week. news.instaforex.com »
Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research: -Conditions for sustainable recovery are in place in the US and we expect growth finally to break above trend in 2H13. news.instaforex.com »
В продолжение европейского предмаркета… Итак, USD/CHF. Пара приблизилась к сильнейшему сопротивлению, представленному уровнем 0,9390. fibo.ru »
The Swiss franc drifted weaker in early European deals on Tuesday despite a report showed that the nation's economic growth in the second quarter slowed less-than that of economists' predictions, largely due to positive contributions from private spending and investment.
According to figures published by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), the real gross domestic product expanded 0.5 percent sequentially, which was forecast to fall to 0.3 percent from the prior quarter's 0.6 percent growth.
As seen in the previous quarter, household spending gained 0.6 percent. Moreover, investment recovered strongly in the second quarter, up 1.4 percent after falling 0.2 percent. On a yearly basis, economic growth more than doubled to 2.5 percent from 1.2 percent a quarter ago.
Easing concerns over an imminent U.S. strike on Syria and further signs of economic improvement across the globe lifted the risk-associated currencies' values in the foreign exchange market on Tuesday.
The U.S. President Barack Obama's decision to carry out a limited air strike against Syria may be delayed until at least next week as Republican Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham said they have more confidence the White House is developing a better strategy to back use of military force.
Equities also rallied after official data indicated another month of reasonably solid growth in Chinese service sector, with the non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index easing slightly to 53.9 last month from 54.1 in July.
Meanwhile, the British Retail Consortium said retail sales in the U.K. increased at a weaker-than-expected rate in August after an exceptional July. Sales value increased 1.8 percent year-over-year on a like-for-like basis, falling below expectations for 2.4 percent growth but keeping well above the 12-month average.
Elsewhere, the total labor cash earnings in Japan increased for a second consecutive month in July, albeit at a slower pace, data from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare showed today. Total wages increased 0.4 percent year-on-year in July, following a 0.6 percent increase in June and a 0.1 percent decrease in May.
At the same time, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the benchmark cash rate unchanged at a record-low of 2.5 percent, with a possible depreciation of the currency expected to facilitate rebalancing of the economy.
Investors await a slew of reports on U.K. construction activity, producer prices from the euro area and U.S. ISM manufacturing all due out later in the day for further clues on the health of the global economy.
The Swiss franc slipped to 1.4584 against the pound around 2:45 am ET, having extended its strong sell-offs since its failed test of 1.42 resistance on August 28. With the GBP/CHF currency cross is staying well-above its 200-day simple moving average level, the franc is poised to extend its downtrend beyond 1.46 support in the near-term to set its lowest level since June 10.
The franc also fell to a fresh 2-week low of 0.9374 against the US dollar following the GDP numbers, pushing the local unit closer to the pivotal 0.94 area, a level not seen since August 15. The franc has been trading lower since its failure to challenge resistance around the 0.9140/50 area on August 20.
The Switzerland currency dropped to a weekly low of 1.2343 against the euro and a session's low of 106.21 against the yen following the data. The next bearish barrier for the Swiss franc is seen around the 1.2360 against the former and 106.0 against the latter, as CHF/JPY pair is receding well-below from a trend-line resistance of a symmetrical triangle.
The recent "stream of good news" from Eurozone reduced the need for further interest rate reduction, European Central Bank's Ewald Nowotny said in an interview with the Bloomberg news agency.
"I would not see many arguments now for a rate cut," Nowotny, who heads Austria's central bank said. But the most recent developments will not have any immediate effects on the policy of the ECB.
The main refinancing rate remains at record low 0.50 percent. The interest rate was last reduced by a quarter-basis point in May.
Nowotny said he is "cautiously optimistic" about the economic outlook. The Eurozone recovery is weak, he noted.
The recovery in Germany and France helped the 17-nation euro currency bloc to exit recession in the second quarter. Eurozone GDP grew at a pace of 0.3 percent.
Quotes from Barclays Capital: -Although the near-term focus of monetary policy in India remains on containing INR weakness, we continue to believe that reviving growth in a non-inflationary manner remains the priority from a more medium-term perspective. news.instaforex.com »
The US dollar showed mixed performance in early New York deals on Wednesday, ahead of the U.S. FOMC minutes that is expected to provide fresh clues on Fed's stimulus exit strategy.
Traders will look closely at the minutes of its July 30-31 FOMC meeting to be released at 2 pm ET, for clues on the precise timing and scale of any tapering by the Federal Reserve. Many market participants expect the Fed to announce a reduction to its asset purchases at its September 17-18 policy meeting.
Ahead of the minutes, the National Association of Realtors is scheduled to release its existing home sales report for July at 10:00 am ET. Economists expect existing home sales to come in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.150 million units.
The Energy Information Administration is due to release its petroleum inventory report for the week ended August 16th at 10:30 am ET.
Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda repeated his earlier remarks that the central bank would not hesitate to provide further stimulus in order to prevent the economy from slipping back into deflation.
The dollar dropped back to below the pivotal 1.57 level against the pound after a gap of more than 2-months, down by more than 0.2 percent from its overnight closing value of 1.5666.
The key support for the greenback is seen around the 1.5750/50 area and the likelihood of breaking this point could sent the U.S. currency to its weakest level against the sterling since February 11.
The dollar, however, advanced against the euro in early New York trading on Wednesday. The greenback climbed to 1.3381 against the common currency, bouncing back from yesterday's fresh multi-month lows of 1.3451.
The dollar rebounded to above 0.92 against the Swiss franc, after having dropped briefly below the key 0.9150 support for the first time after a gap of more than 2-months on Wednesday. If the present bounce persists for the greenback-franc pair, 0.9230 is seen as the next likely resistance level in the near-term.
The greenback traded in narrow ranges against the yen in early deals, moving between a high of 97.55 and a low of 97.37. The broader technical picture shows indecision in the near-term as the pair is swinging back and forth in a descending triangle, but nowhere near the trend-line support/resistance areas.
All times is GMT. WEDNESDAY, AUG. 21 0830 - UK PUBLIC SECTOR BORROWINGS FOR JULY UK PSNB (ex-fin. int. ) forecast at -2. news.instaforex.com »
British retail sales growth accelerated more-than-expected in July as the heatwave boosted food store sales, data showed Thursday.
Including automotive fuel, retail sales volume advanced 1.1 percent from the prior month, following a 0.2 percent rise in June, the Office for National Statistics said. Sales grew for the third month and the rate of growth was expected to rise moderately to 0.7 percent.
Sales that exclude automotive fuel also grew by 1.1 percent, which was faster than the 0.3 percent expansion seen in the previous month. The rate exceeded the consensus forecast of 0.6 percent.
Food store sales surged 2.5 percent, which was partially offset by a 0.3 percent drop in non-food store sales. Non-store retailing rose 1.7 percent in July.
According to a monthly survey carried out by the Confederation of British Industry, retailers expect sales volumes to increase again in the year through August after rising for the first time in five months in July.
Last week, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney assured that policymakers do not intend to hike interest rates from the current 0.50 percent, at least until the unemployment rate has fallen to a threshold of 7 percent.
However, Martin Beck, UK economist at Capital Economics said the resources to sustain growth in sales still look lacking with real pay set to continue falling into next year and households eating into their savings.
The ONS data today showed that all retailing including auto fuel climbed 3 percent annually, the biggest since January 2011. Sales were expected to grow by 2.4 percent after rising 1.9 percent each in June and May.
At the same time, annual growth in sales, excluding auto fuel, came in at 3.1 percent, up from June's 1.8 percent rise and above the 2.7 percent forecast.
At 2.1 percent, the volume of sales in the food sector increased at the fastest pace since April 2011. The amount spent increased 5.7 percent, the highest since September 2011.
The sunny weather boosted sales across a range of products, including food, alcohol, clothing and outdoor items.
The U.K. visible trade deficit narrowed more-than-expected to a near 1-year low in June, thanks to record exports amid slower increase in imports.
The deficit on goods trade declined to GBP 8.1 billion in June, the lowest since July 2012, from GBP 8.7 billion in May, the report released by the Office for National Statistics showed Friday.
The decrease of GBP 0.6 billion remains within the range of normal month-on-month movement, the ONS said. The number was also below the expected GBP 8.35 billion deficit.
The visible trade deficit was partially offset by an estimated surplus of GBP 6.5 billion on services. As a result, the total trade deficit fell to GBP 1.5 billion from GBP 2.6 billion in the previous month.
Exports of goods rose by GBP 1.3 billion to a record GBP 26.9 billion in June, while imports increased by a moderate GBP 0.7 billion to GBP 35 billion.
In the second quarter, the deficit on trade in goods reduced to GBP 24.9 billion from GBP 26.5 billion in the previous quarter, the ONS said.
Exports of goods reached GBP 78.4 billion, the highest on record. Likewise, imports of good increased to GBP 103.3 billion, the strongest level since the three months to November 2011.
Exports to countries outside the EU climbed 7.5 percent to over GBP 40 billion for the first time. At the same time, exports to the EU countries gained 2.3 percent.
Looking ahead, IHS Global Insight's Chief U.K. Economist Howard Archer said the hope is that a competitive pound and gradually improving global growth increasingly supports exports.
Nonetheless, Capital Economics' economist Martin Beck said growing signs of a consumer-led recovery, as well as the increased import demand implies that the trade deficit will probably struggle to narrow further over the coming months.
Another report from ONS revealed that construction output advanced 1.4 percent sequentially in the second quarter. It was estimated to have increased by 0.9 percent, while calculating GDP figures. But the agency said the revision has no effect on initial GDP estimate.
According to preliminary estimates, the pace of economic growth doubled to 0.6 percent from 0.3 percent in the first quarter.
Аристакесян Михаил руководитель отдела анализа мировых рынков (ИК "Финам") Текущие уровни очень интересны для покупки золота в долгосрочной перспективе. finam.ru »
Germany's industrial production recovered at a faster-than-expected pace in June, suggesting that the sector has likely emerged from a recent phase of lackluster activity. The strong pick up shows that the economic recovery that started in the beginning of the year has gathered momentum.
Production at German factories increased a seasonally adjusted 2.4 percent month-on-month in June, more than offsetting the previous month's revised 0.8 percent decrease, a report from the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology showed Wednesday. Economists had forecast output to rise 0.3 percent, following May's originally recorded 1 percent fall.
Among industrial sub-sectors, output of capital goods climbed 4.1 percent and consumer goods production advanced 1.1 percent, contributing significantly to the overall upturn in activity. The intermediate goods sector recorded a 0.6 percent gain.
Production, excluding the construction sector, rose 2.2 percent sequentially during the month. Construction output rose 1.6 percent, and energy production was higher by 5 percent than in May.
Compared to June 2012, industrial production advanced a working-day adjusted 2 percent, after recording a 1.2 percent decrease in May, which was revised down from a 1 percent contraction. Production was forecast to fall 0.3 percent year-on-year.
During the May-June period, industrial output moved up 1.3 percent from preceding two months ended April. There was a 0.5 percent year-on-year growth in output during the period.
According to the report, that sentiment indicators for the German industrial sector suggest that the current positive trend in production will continue in the coming months.
Today's outcome corroborates the government data, which came out yesterday, showing that new orders in the German manufacturing sector grew at the fastest pace in eight months in June, driven mainly by strong demand for big-ticket items.
In a sign that German factory sector has overcome its weakness, a recent survey compiled by Markit Economics showed that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index climbed to an 18-month high in July, supported by rising volumes of new work and higher production levels.
Reinforcing the upbeat outlook for the German industrial sector, survey data released by the Ifo Institute last month revealed that confidence among entrepreneurs rose for a third consecutive month in July.
The recent improvement in Germany's job market is also reflective of the upturn in industrial activity. In June, a statement from the Federal labor agency showed that the number of unemployed in the country declined for a second consecutive month in July.
The Bundesbank last month said it expects Germany's economic growth to weaken in the third quarter, following the second quarter's recovery. Earlier, the bank had lowered its growth outlook for this year to 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent. The economy is seen growing 1.5 percent in 2014.
The euro was trading lower against the dollar and the pound on Thursday after the European Central Bank decided to hold its interest rate unchanged at a record of 0.50 percent.
The European Central Bank left its interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive month in August amid some improvement in economic indicators, which is in line with its expectation of a gradual recovery later this year.
The Governing Council led by ECB President Mario Draghi left the main refinancing rate steady at a record low 0.50 percent as expected. The rate was slashed by quarter-basis point in May, the first rate cut in nine months.
The bank also held the marginal lending facility rate at 1 percent, following a 50 basis points cut in May. The zero deposit rate was also left unchanged.
At the same time, the Eurozone manufacturing sector expanded for the first time since July 2011, survey data from Markit Economics showed today. The Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 50.3 in July, from 48.8 in June and above the flash estimate of 50.1.
As widely expected, the Monetary Policy Committee headed by Mark Carney retained the asset purchase facility at GBP 375 billion and interest rate at a record low 0.50 percent.
In the U.K., the seasonally adjusted Markit/Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply Purchasing Manager's Index rose more-than-expected to 54.6 in July from a revised reading of 52.9 in June. The index reading was forecast to improve to 52.8 from June's originally estimated level of 52.5.
The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept its ultra-loose monetary policy intact, voicing concerns over the recent rise in mortgage rates and low inflation. There was no language in the Fed's post-statement meeting that would suggest that the $85 billion a month asset-purchase program may be scaled back in the next few months.
The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) in China rose to 50.3 in July from 50.1 in the previous month, while a separate HSBC PMI survey showed factory activity shrank for a third straight month to its lowest level in 11 months. The headline PMI index fell to 47.7 from 48.2 in June.
The U.S. weekly jobless claims report showed that initial jobless claims fell to 326,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 345,000. The decrease surprised economists, who had expected jobless claims to edge up to 345,000 from the 343,000 originally reported for the previous week.
The euro slipped to a 2-day low of 0.8678 against the pound around 8:30 am ET, pulling back from Asian session's fresh 4-month high of 0.8768. The near-term support for the euro is seen around the 0.8660 level, at which the 10-day EMA lies in the currency cross.
The euro dropped below the key 1.32 level against the US dollar, falling to a weekly low of 1.3192 by 8:30 am ET. The euro-greenback pair is presently hovering around the 1.32 level with 1.3165 seen as the next likely support level.
The common currency held steady against the Swiss franc and the yen after the ECB rate decision. The euro-franc pair was trading in a range of 1.2310 and 1.2330 and the euro-yen pair was trading between 130.80 and 130.40.
Slovenia's inflation rose sharply in July to its highest level in five months, data released by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia showed on Wednesday.
Inflation based on the consumer price index acclerated to 2.6 percent in June from 1.9 percent in May. The rate rose for the second straight month and was the highest since February's 2.7 percent.
Month-on-month, consumer prices declined 0.3 percent, after remaining stable in the previous month.
The harmonized index of consumer prices rose 2.8 percent year-on-year, following a 2.2 percent increase in May.
On a monthly basis, the HICP dropped 0.3 percent in June and stood stable in May, data showed.
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Slovenia's unemployment rate decreased from the previous month in June, data released by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia showed Tuesday.
The unemployment rate decreased to 13 percent in May from 13.3 percent in April. In May 2013, the jobless rate was 11.7 percent. Since February this year, the unemployment rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points.
There were 118,576 unemployed persons in Slovenia at the end of May, which was lower than 121,332 recorded in the previous month.
The jobless rate among youth, aged between 15 and 24, was 28.3 percent in May, lower than 29.1 percent recorded a month earlier.
At the same time, the number of persons in employment increased by around 2,400 month-on-month to 795,402 in May, continuing the trend began at the beginning of the year. The upturn was led by a notable rise in headcounts in the construction sector, data showed.
The tapering would support a rise in interest rates and bolster the dollar, reducing gold's attractiveness.
Spot gold touched a low of $1,267.29 an ounce earlier as the dollar's rebound strengthened, briefly curbing its biggest weekly climb since October 2011 to a best performance in 11 weeks. It was trading down 0.4 percent at $1,279.80 by 1349 GMT. Analysts said the metal now faces strong resistance crossing the $1,300 level.
Comex gold futures for August delivery also retreated from a two-and-a-half week high near $1,300 hit in the previous session to $1,278.70 an ounce, down $1.20.
Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust GLD remained unchanged at four-and-a-half year lows of 30.192 million ounces on Thursday. The fund posted the biggest weekly loss of 2.6 percent since the end of April.
Silver fell 1.3 percent to $19.83 an ounce, having reached a three-week high of $20.26 on Thursday. Platinum was down 0.5 percent to $1,397.99 an ounce after hitting a three-week high of $1,414.75 earlier. Palladium slipped 0.1 percent to $715.50 an ounce.
Quotes from Standard Chartered:
-On Monday (15 July) we get China's Q2 GDP, June industrial production and retail sales data - numbers likely already being seen by decision-makers. For the key GDP print, the consensus is at 7.5% y/y. We expect a slightly lower 7.4% y/y, as we sense weakening momentum in June.
-The labour market is weak, but not disastrously so, which is what would be required in order for Beijing to pivot on policy. Premier Li Keqiang visited Guangxi province on 9 July and emphasised the importance of reform for growth. The short-term focus is on the quality not the quantity of growth.
news.instaforex.com »Quotes from Standard Chartered: -UK industrial activity is likely to have picked up in May (0. 8% m/m expected) after a weak April (0. news.instaforex.com »
Quotes from Standard Chartered:
-We place Australia in the 'moderate risk' category in terms of overall leverage. As the economy rebalances structurally and the focus turns to domestic consumption and non-resource-led growth, Australia's Achilles' heel is in the household sector. The country's total debt level is low overall compared to other major economies, but the high level and concentration of debt among households is an area of vulnerability.
-The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has reduced the policy cash rate by 200bps since November 2011 to a low of 2.75%. Easy credit, a booming housing market and a push for greater consumer consumption can be a risky combination if households leverage up excessively. In Australia's case, though, domestic conditions have led to softer demand for debt from businesses and households as they consolidate following high levels of debt earlier.
-Recent data indicates that households are moving in the right direction, taking advantage of current low interest rates to repay their existing debt and deleverage. Further deleveraging from high levels is needed to ensure adequate debt repayment capacity as interest rise in the future, in our view.
news.instaforex.com »Quotes from RBC Capital Markets:
-EUR: The ECB's Draghi spoke in London, repeating that the risks to growth are still on the downside but he sees a fragile and gradual recovery. He reminded that exit from exceptional monetary policy remains distant and that "we stand ready to act again when needed" but there are limits to what monetary policy can achieve. He says policy will remain accommodative for the foreseeable future. Elsewhere, the FT and La Repubblica quote a report by the Italian Treasury detailing the country's debt transactions for H1 2012 and suggesting the restructuring of eight derivatives contracts with foreign banks during that period could lead to up to EUR8bn in losses for Italy.
-The FT says the restructuring allowed the Tsy to stagger payments to foreign banks (on derivatives with a total notional value of EUR31.7bn) but the Italian govt had to accept more disadvantageous terms in some cases. The Italian Tsy has issued a statement in response saying the contracts were used to hedge against exchange rate/interest rate risks at the time of Italy's entry to the Euro, and carried a cost which is "justified by the need to protect against serious risks". Italian spreads are tighter on the day, largely ignoring the derivatives story in favour of the short-covering mood.
news.instaforex.com »Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research: -German HICP accelerated from 1. 1% yoy in April to 1. 6% yoy in May, on the back of higher food and services inflation. news.instaforex.com »
