UK Economy Set To Record Stronger Growth In Q3: Capital Economics


The ongoing strength of the British private sector, as indicated by the latest purchasing managers' surveys, points to a sharp pick-up in GDP growth in the third quarter, Capital Economics Chief UK Economist Vicky Redwood said Thursday.



Capital Economics forecasts that economic growth in the third quarter would comfortably match or exceeded the 0.7 percent growth recorded in the second quarter.



However, muted employment growth and subdued price pressures, as evidenced by the PMI surveys, suggest that the strong economic growth is unlikely to translate into a rapid fall in the unemployment rate, a pick-up in price pressures, or a near-term rise in official interest rates, the firm said.



According to Redwood, while retail sales and industrial production look set to beat the growth seen in the second quarter, the sharp widening of the trade deficit in July suggests that net trade will struggle to contribute to growth as it did in the June quarter.



Further, data from the three PMI surveys, comprising manufacturing, construction and services, suggest that the fourth quarter is starting on a strong note too, the economist said.



Survey data compiled by Markit Economics today showed that the purchasing managers' index for the UK service sector stayed well above the neutral mark in September, signaling stable growth momentum in the sector. At 60.3, the index was little changed from August's reading of 60.5.



The movement of the index over the third quarter as a whole shows that services output increased at a faster rate of 1.5 percent than 0.6 percent in the second quarter.





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2013-10-3 17:42

Источник: news.instaforex.com

the growth → Результатов: 11 / the growth - фото


Brazil's Manufacturing Sector Rebounds In October


Brazil's manufacturing sector expanded for the first time in four months in October, helped by a strong pick up in production, data from a survey by Markit Economics and HSBC Bank showed Friday.



The manufacturing purchasing managers' index, adjusted for seasonal variations, advanced to 50.2 in October from 49.9 in September. Readings above 50 signal growth, and those below indicate decline.



Brazilian companies raised their production levels in October, amid expectations of better economic conditions and forecasts of stronger client demand. Production growth was the quickest since May.



New business inflows stabilized during the month, following three successive months of contraction. Export orders, however, fell at the fastest pace since July.



Meanwhile, manufacturers reduced their workforce numbers further in October, stretching the current sequence of job shedding to seven months.



Elsewhere, a report released by statistical office IBGE today showed that Brazil's industrial production increased 2 percent year-on-year in September, after falling 1.2 percent in August. Economists had forecast a 3 percent growth for October.



Sequentially, seasonally adjusted industrial production moved up 0.7 percent, after staying flat in August. The monthly growth rate was forecast to be 1.3 percent.





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2013-11-01 17:42

Research: Taiwan's September Ip Growth Likely to have slowed Further

Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research:


-We expect Taiwan's industrial production to remain in the contraction zone in September after the disappointing reading in August (data to be released on 23rd October). Export orders, which usually lead industrial production by one month or more, disappointed in August, growing by just 0.5% yoy. The September trade data served as another reminder of the painfully slow recovery of the island's economy. 


-Exports contracted sharply by 7% yoy, slowing from +3.6% yoy in August. The base effect certainly played a role, but the underlying trend of external demand also failed to strengthen further. By destination, export growth to China slumped the most to -10.9% yoy from +3.6% yoy in the previous month.


-By goods, the contribution from machineries & electrical equipments (ME) to headline growth fell from +2.5ppt to -0.5ppt. Hence, the chance of getting another soft data point for production seems fairly high. 

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2013-10-21 17:42

S. Africa August Factory Output Growth Eases More Than Forecast


South Africa's manufacturing production rose at a significantly slower pace in August, and the growth rate was far below economists' forecast, latest data showed Thursday.



Manufacturing production edged up 0.2 percent in August from a year earlier, after expanding strongly by 5.5 percent in July, Statistics South Africa said. The expected growth rate was 1.2 percent.



The weakening of the output growth mainly reflected a 25 percent fall in the production of motor vehicles, parts and accessories and other transport equipment. Production of textiles, clothing, leather and footwear dropped by 0.9 percent.



Meanwhile, production in the food and beverages industry advanced 1.7 percent from August last year, and output of wood, wood products, paper, and publishing and printing articles rose by 6.4 percent.



On a monthly basis, seasonally adjusted manufacturing production fell sharply by 3.6 percent in August, which was faster than the 2 percent fall economists had forecast.



During the three months ended August, factory production increased 0.2 percent from the preceding three-month period, data showed.





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2013-10-10 17:38

KOF Upgrades Swiss Growth Forecast


Switzerland's economic growth will likely accelerate at a faster rate than estimated earlier, supported by stable domestic demand and an improvement in exports as the Eurozone recovery strengthens, revised estimates released by the KOF Economic Institute showed Monday.



The agency forecasts that gross domestic product will grow at a faster rate of 1.9 percent this year than 1 percent in 2012. The revised outlook marks an improvement from the 1.4 percent gain the the firm had predicted earlier.



Further, growth is expected to accelerate to 2.1 percent next year, slightly faster than the 2 percent estimated earlier. Going ahead, growth is seen gathering further momentum, and the economy will expand 2.3 percent in 2015.



According to KOF, an upturn in Switzerland's exports will contribute significantly to the economy in the coming months, shifting the dynamics of growth from domestic demand towards foreign demand. The firms expects Swiss exports to rise 4.2 on average in 2014.



Consumer prices will likely drop further by 0.2 percent this year, but will reverse the falling trend by recording increases of 0.5 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively, in 2014 and 2015.



At the same time, unemployment will remain low in the coming months, but will hardly fall any further despite the positive economic developments.



KOF further noted that the economic environment will make it easier for the Swiss National Bank to end its zero interest rate policy and allow it to gradually start raising short-term interest rates again from 2015 onwards.





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2013-09-23 17:23

U.K. Retail Sales Growth Tops Expectations


British retail sales growth accelerated more-than-expected in July as the heatwave boosted food store sales, data showed Thursday.



Including automotive fuel, retail sales volume advanced 1.1 percent from the prior month, following a 0.2 percent rise in June, the Office for National Statistics said. Sales grew for the third month and the rate of growth was expected to rise moderately to 0.7 percent.



Sales that exclude automotive fuel also grew by 1.1 percent, which was faster than the 0.3 percent expansion seen in the previous month. The rate exceeded the consensus forecast of 0.6 percent.



Food store sales surged 2.5 percent, which was partially offset by a 0.3 percent drop in non-food store sales. Non-store retailing rose 1.7 percent in July.



According to a monthly survey carried out by the Confederation of British Industry, retailers expect sales volumes to increase again in the year through August after rising for the first time in five months in July.



Last week, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney assured that policymakers do not intend to hike interest rates from the current 0.50 percent, at least until the unemployment rate has fallen to a threshold of 7 percent.



However, Martin Beck, UK economist at Capital Economics said the resources to sustain growth in sales still look lacking with real pay set to continue falling into next year and households eating into their savings.



The ONS data today showed that all retailing including auto fuel climbed 3 percent annually, the biggest since January 2011. Sales were expected to grow by 2.4 percent after rising 1.9 percent each in June and May.



At the same time, annual growth in sales, excluding auto fuel, came in at 3.1 percent, up from June's 1.8 percent rise and above the 2.7 percent forecast.



At 2.1 percent, the volume of sales in the food sector increased at the fastest pace since April 2011. The amount spent increased 5.7 percent, the highest since September 2011.



The sunny weather boosted sales across a range of products, including food, alcohol, clothing and outdoor items.





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2013-08-15 16:15

Russia's Economy Can Grow 3-4%, Presidential Adviser Says


Russia's economic growth rate is below potential, Russian Presidential Adviser Elvira Nabiullina said, according to news agency Itar-Tass.



But it can grow at 3-4 percent this year, Bank Rossii Governor-designate Nabiullina said. She said institutional reforms are needed for better growth.



The central bank is under immense pressure to cut rates to contain slowing growth. It has kept its key rate unchanged at 8.25 percent for the seventh consecutive month, but reduced rates on long-term liquidity operations by a quarter point in April as it sees increased risks to economic growth.



The bank said the macroeconomic indicators pointed to a continuing deceleration of economic growth and increased risks of its deceleration.





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2013-04-18 12:42

China 2012 Trade Growth Likely At 6%: Commerce Minister


China's foreign trade is likely to hit a growth rate of around 6 percent this year, Commerce Minister Chen Deming was quoted as saying by Xinhua news agency.



This was much below the official growth target of 10 percent. According to customs data, exports rose 2.9 percent year-on-year in November and imports recorded zero growth.



Chen also noted that the country's foreign direct investment will likely total $110 billion this year. Outbound direct investment by non-financial institutions will reach $70 billion in 2012, the minister was quoted as saying.





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2012-12-28 10:42

Switzerland Maintains Currency Ceiling; Keeps Rate Steady


The Swiss National Bank retained the currency ceiling and its key interest rate near zero as widely expected by economists, as the bank sees sluggish growth in the coming year.



The bank led by President Thomas Jordan decided on Thursday to maintain the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro.



The SNB said it will continue to enforce the floor rate with the 'utmost determination' as an appreciation of the Swiss franc would compromise price stability and would have serious consequences for the Swiss economy.



Further, the bank reiterated that it is prepared to buy foreign currency in 'unlimited quantities' to enforce the exchange rate.



The target range for the three-month Libor was maintained at 0.0-0.25 percent. The bank said it stands ready to take further measures at any time, if needed.



For 2012, the SNB forecasts consumer prices to fall 0.7 percent, compared to a 0.6 percent drop estimated at the September meeting.



The bank expects overall prices to ease 0.1 percent in 2013 and inflation at 0.4 percent in 2014. In the foreseeable future, there is no risk of inflation in Switzerland, it said. In September, the bank had estimated a 0.2 percent inflation for 2013.



According to the SNB, economic growth in Switzerland for the year 2012 is likely to remain unchanged at around 1 percent, in line with September forecast. For 2013, the bank expects growth of 1 percent-1.5 percent.



The economy grew 0.6 percent in the third quarter, strongly recovering from a 0.1 percent contraction in the previous three months.



Although real GDP in the third quarter increased following a temporary downturn, the SNB expects significant weakening in growth in the fourth quarter.



Even at current levels, the currency is likely to act as a drag on growth in the coming quarters, Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics said.



If Eurozone crisis re-escalate, safe haven flows into the currency may well pick back up again, providing a sterner test of the SNB's determination, he said.



The Swiss economic growth in 2013 is likely to be weaker than previously thought due to deteriorating global economic conditions, the State Secretariat For Economic Affairs (SECO) suggested Thursday.



Gross domestic product is now expected to grow 1.3 percent next year, at a slightly weaker pace than the 1.4 percent growth forecast in September. The GDP projection for this year was left unchanged at 1 percent. Growth is seen picking up momentum further in 2014 with the GDP expanding 2 percent



The KOF Institute last week lowered the Swiss economic growth, citing weaker exports and investments. It projects 1.2 percent growth for next year.



Earlier, the SNB had introduced a countercyclical capital buffer allowing the Federal Council to increase the capital buffer of banks depending on potential excesses in the Swiss credit market. ING Bank NV's economist Julien Manceaux expects this facility to be used in 2013.





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2012-12-13 15:24

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