Research: Taiwan's September Ip Growth Likely to have slowed Further

Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research:

-We expect Taiwan's industrial production to remain in the contraction zone in September after the disappointing reading in August (data to be released on 23rd October). Export orders, which usually lead industrial production by one month or more, disappointed in August, growing by just 0.5% yoy. The September trade data served as another reminder of the painfully slow recovery of the island's economy. 

-Exports contracted sharply by 7% yoy, slowing from +3.6% yoy in August. The base effect certainly played a role, but the underlying trend of external demand also failed to strengthen further. By destination, export growth to China slumped the most to -10.9% yoy from +3.6% yoy in the previous month.

-By goods, the contribution from machineries & electrical equipments (ME) to headline growth fell from +2.5ppt to -0.5ppt. Hence, the chance of getting another soft data point for production seems fairly high. 

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2013-10-21 17:42

European Economics Preview: U.K. Retail Sales Data Due

Retail sales data from the U.K. is the main news due from Europe on Thursday, headlining a light day for European economic news.

At 3.30 am ET, Dutch statistical office is scheduled to release the unemployment figures for September. The jobless rate is tipped to rise to 8.7 percent from 8.6 percent recorded a month earlier. Statistics Sweden is also due to publish the job market data at 3.30 am ET.

The European Central Bank is slated to release the Eurozone's current account balance for August at 4 am ET.

The Office for National Statistics is due to announce retail sales statistics at 4.30 am ET. Sales, including auto fuel, is forecast to increase 0.4 percent month-on-month in September.

At 5 am ET, Eurozone construction output data from Eurostat is due. Producer price figures from Portugal is expected at 6 am ET.

Poland's central bank is scheduled to release the minutes of its October monetary policy meeting at 8 am ET.

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2013-10-17 11:42

Portugal June-August Trade Deficit Widens

Portugal's merchandise trade shortfall widened in the June-August period as imports increased at a faster pace than exports, data released by the National Statistics Institute showed Wednesday.

The balance of trade for the three months ended August was a deficit of EUR2.41 billion, bigger than the EUR2.24 billion shortfall recorded a year earlier.

Merchandise exports increased 2.3 percent annually to EUR11.63 billion at the end of August. Shipments to the European Union (EU) countries and the Non-EU market grew 2.1 percent and 2.8 percent respectively.

Imports grew 3.1 percent from last year to EUR14.04 billion in the August quarter. Purchases from the EU climbed 4.4 percent year-on-year, and those from the external market stayed unchanged.

In the month of August, Portugal's exports stayed unchanged from the preceding month, while imports decreased by 3.5 percent, data showed.

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2013-10-09 17:42

Research: Recovery Will Remain Sluggish in France

Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research: -In September, the French INSEE business confidence index for the whole economy rose from 91 to 94. news.instaforex.com »

2013-09-25 17:42

KOF Upgrades Swiss Growth Forecast

Switzerland's economic growth will likely accelerate at a faster rate than estimated earlier, supported by stable domestic demand and an improvement in exports as the Eurozone recovery strengthens, revised estimates released by the KOF Economic Institute showed Monday.

The agency forecasts that gross domestic product will grow at a faster rate of 1.9 percent this year than 1 percent in 2012. The revised outlook marks an improvement from the 1.4 percent gain the the firm had predicted earlier.

Further, growth is expected to accelerate to 2.1 percent next year, slightly faster than the 2 percent estimated earlier. Going ahead, growth is seen gathering further momentum, and the economy will expand 2.3 percent in 2015.

According to KOF, an upturn in Switzerland's exports will contribute significantly to the economy in the coming months, shifting the dynamics of growth from domestic demand towards foreign demand. The firms expects Swiss exports to rise 4.2 on average in 2014.

Consumer prices will likely drop further by 0.2 percent this year, but will reverse the falling trend by recording increases of 0.5 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively, in 2014 and 2015.

At the same time, unemployment will remain low in the coming months, but will hardly fall any further despite the positive economic developments.

KOF further noted that the economic environment will make it easier for the Swiss National Bank to end its zero interest rate policy and allow it to gradually start raising short-term interest rates again from 2015 onwards.

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2013-09-23 17:23

Aussie Strengthens On Syria Deal, Summers Withdrawal From Fed Chairman Contest

The Australian dollar advanced against other major currencies in Asian deals on Monday, as sentiment improved after the U.S. and Russia reached deal to remove Syria's chemical weapons and Lawrence Summers pulled out from race to Fed's top post.

Summers on Sunday notified President Barack Obama that he was withdrawing his name from consideration to replace Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke when the latter's term expires at the end of January.

"I have reluctantly concluded that any possible confirmation process for me would be acrimonious and would not serve the interests of the Federal Reserve, the administration or ultimately, the interests of the nation's ongoing economic recovery," Summers wrote.

Vice Chair Janet Yellen, who favor a slower reduction of asset purchases, now becomes the clear-cut favorite for the job.

Over the weekend, the U.S. and Russia agreed on a deal to eliminate Syria's chemical weapons by mid-2014.

The framework deal requires Syria to furnish full details of its stockpile within a week. The U.S said that non-compliance, including unauthorized transfer, or any use of chemical weapons by anyone in Syria, the UN Security Council should impose measures under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.

The aussie appreciated to 0.9390 against the greenback, highest since June 19. The next resistance for the aussie-greenback pair lies at the 0.95 level. The pair was worth 0.9244 at yesterday's close.

The aussie that ended Friday's trading at 1.1369 against the NZ dollar advanced to a 4-day high of 1.1419. The aussie may face resistance around the 1.15 level.

New Zealand house sales dipped 3.4 percent to 6,548 in August, compared to the previous month, the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand said today. That follows the 0.5 percent contraction in July.

The aussie advanced to a 4-day high of 92.76 against the yen, up by 1.2 percent from last week's multi-day low of 91.69. On the upside, the aussie may probably seek resistance at the 93.6 level.

The aussie spiked up to more than 2-month high of 0.9680 against the loonie, which is up from Friday's closing quote of 0.9569. The aussie is likely to test resistance at the 0.98 level.

The aussie reached 1.4236 against the euro, a level unseen since July 24 and an increase of 1 percent from last week's close of 1.4381. The next upside target for the aussie lies at the 1.41 level.

Looking ahead, Eurozone final inflation for August is due in the European session.

The U.S. industrial production and Canada existing home sales for August are set for release in the New York session.

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2013-09-16 09:49

Swiss Franc Weakens Despite Upbeat Q2 GDP Report

The Swiss franc drifted weaker in early European deals on Tuesday despite a report showed that the nation's economic growth in the second quarter slowed less-than that of economists' predictions, largely due to positive contributions from private spending and investment.

According to figures published by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), the real gross domestic product expanded 0.5 percent sequentially, which was forecast to fall to 0.3 percent from the prior quarter's 0.6 percent growth.

As seen in the previous quarter, household spending gained 0.6 percent. Moreover, investment recovered strongly in the second quarter, up 1.4 percent after falling 0.2 percent. On a yearly basis, economic growth more than doubled to 2.5 percent from 1.2 percent a quarter ago.

Easing concerns over an imminent U.S. strike on Syria and further signs of economic improvement across the globe lifted the risk-associated currencies' values in the foreign exchange market on Tuesday.

The U.S. President Barack Obama's decision to carry out a limited air strike against Syria may be delayed until at least next week as Republican Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham said they have more confidence the White House is developing a better strategy to back use of military force.

Equities also rallied after official data indicated another month of reasonably solid growth in Chinese service sector, with the non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index easing slightly to 53.9 last month from 54.1 in July.

Meanwhile, the British Retail Consortium said retail sales in the U.K. increased at a weaker-than-expected rate in August after an exceptional July. Sales value increased 1.8 percent year-over-year on a like-for-like basis, falling below expectations for 2.4 percent growth but keeping well above the 12-month average.

Elsewhere, the total labor cash earnings in Japan increased for a second consecutive month in July, albeit at a slower pace, data from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare showed today. Total wages increased 0.4 percent year-on-year in July, following a 0.6 percent increase in June and a 0.1 percent decrease in May.

At the same time, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the benchmark cash rate unchanged at a record-low of 2.5 percent, with a possible depreciation of the currency expected to facilitate rebalancing of the economy.

Investors await a slew of reports on U.K. construction activity, producer prices from the euro area and U.S. ISM manufacturing all due out later in the day for further clues on the health of the global economy.

The Swiss franc slipped to 1.4584 against the pound around 2:45 am ET, having extended its strong sell-offs since its failed test of 1.42 resistance on August 28. With the GBP/CHF currency cross is staying well-above its 200-day simple moving average level, the franc is poised to extend its downtrend beyond 1.46 support in the near-term to set its lowest level since June 10.

The franc also fell to a fresh 2-week low of 0.9374 against the US dollar following the GDP numbers, pushing the local unit closer to the pivotal 0.94 area, a level not seen since August 15. The franc has been trading lower since its failure to challenge resistance around the 0.9140/50 area on August 20.

The Switzerland currency dropped to a weekly low of 1.2343 against the euro and a session's low of 106.21 against the yen following the data. The next bearish barrier for the Swiss franc is seen around the 1.2360 against the former and 106.0 against the latter, as CHF/JPY pair is receding well-below from a trend-line resistance of a symmetrical triangle.

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2013-09-03 12:42

Research: Further Monetary Policy Easing in India Will Likely have to Wait

Quotes from Barclays Capital: -Although the near-term focus of monetary policy in India remains on containing INR weakness, we continue to believe that reviving growth in a non-inflationary manner remains the priority from a more medium-term perspective. news.instaforex.com »

2013-08-21 17:42

U.K. Retail Sales Growth Tops Expectations

British retail sales growth accelerated more-than-expected in July as the heatwave boosted food store sales, data showed Thursday.

Including automotive fuel, retail sales volume advanced 1.1 percent from the prior month, following a 0.2 percent rise in June, the Office for National Statistics said. Sales grew for the third month and the rate of growth was expected to rise moderately to 0.7 percent.

Sales that exclude automotive fuel also grew by 1.1 percent, which was faster than the 0.3 percent expansion seen in the previous month. The rate exceeded the consensus forecast of 0.6 percent.

Food store sales surged 2.5 percent, which was partially offset by a 0.3 percent drop in non-food store sales. Non-store retailing rose 1.7 percent in July.

According to a monthly survey carried out by the Confederation of British Industry, retailers expect sales volumes to increase again in the year through August after rising for the first time in five months in July.

Last week, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney assured that policymakers do not intend to hike interest rates from the current 0.50 percent, at least until the unemployment rate has fallen to a threshold of 7 percent.

However, Martin Beck, UK economist at Capital Economics said the resources to sustain growth in sales still look lacking with real pay set to continue falling into next year and households eating into their savings.

The ONS data today showed that all retailing including auto fuel climbed 3 percent annually, the biggest since January 2011. Sales were expected to grow by 2.4 percent after rising 1.9 percent each in June and May.

At the same time, annual growth in sales, excluding auto fuel, came in at 3.1 percent, up from June's 1.8 percent rise and above the 2.7 percent forecast.

At 2.1 percent, the volume of sales in the food sector increased at the fastest pace since April 2011. The amount spent increased 5.7 percent, the highest since September 2011.

The sunny weather boosted sales across a range of products, including food, alcohol, clothing and outdoor items.

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2013-08-15 16:15

U.K. Visible Trade Gap Narrows On Record High Exports

The U.K. visible trade deficit narrowed more-than-expected to a near 1-year low in June, thanks to record exports amid slower increase in imports.

The deficit on goods trade declined to GBP 8.1 billion in June, the lowest since July 2012, from GBP 8.7 billion in May, the report released by the Office for National Statistics showed Friday.

The decrease of GBP 0.6 billion remains within the range of normal month-on-month movement, the ONS said. The number was also below the expected GBP 8.35 billion deficit.

The visible trade deficit was partially offset by an estimated surplus of GBP 6.5 billion on services. As a result, the total trade deficit fell to GBP 1.5 billion from GBP 2.6 billion in the previous month.

Exports of goods rose by GBP 1.3 billion to a record GBP 26.9 billion in June, while imports increased by a moderate GBP 0.7 billion to GBP 35 billion.

In the second quarter, the deficit on trade in goods reduced to GBP 24.9 billion from GBP 26.5 billion in the previous quarter, the ONS said.

Exports of goods reached GBP 78.4 billion, the highest on record. Likewise, imports of good increased to GBP 103.3 billion, the strongest level since the three months to November 2011.

Exports to countries outside the EU climbed 7.5 percent to over GBP 40 billion for the first time. At the same time, exports to the EU countries gained 2.3 percent.

Looking ahead, IHS Global Insight's Chief U.K. Economist Howard Archer said the hope is that a competitive pound and gradually improving global growth increasingly supports exports.

Nonetheless, Capital Economics' economist Martin Beck said growing signs of a consumer-led recovery, as well as the increased import demand implies that the trade deficit will probably struggle to narrow further over the coming months.

Another report from ONS revealed that construction output advanced 1.4 percent sequentially in the second quarter. It was estimated to have increased by 0.9 percent, while calculating GDP figures. But the agency said the revision has no effect on initial GDP estimate.

According to preliminary estimates, the pace of economic growth doubled to 0.6 percent from 0.3 percent in the first quarter.

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2013-08-09 17:42

German Industrial Production Rebound Signals Faster Recovery

Germany's industrial production recovered at a faster-than-expected pace in June, suggesting that the sector has likely emerged from a recent phase of lackluster activity. The strong pick up shows that the economic recovery that started in the beginning of the year has gathered momentum.

Production at German factories increased a seasonally adjusted 2.4 percent month-on-month in June, more than offsetting the previous month's revised 0.8 percent decrease, a report from the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology showed Wednesday. Economists had forecast output to rise 0.3 percent, following May's originally recorded 1 percent fall.

Among industrial sub-sectors, output of capital goods climbed 4.1 percent and consumer goods production advanced 1.1 percent, contributing significantly to the overall upturn in activity. The intermediate goods sector recorded a 0.6 percent gain.

Production, excluding the construction sector, rose 2.2 percent sequentially during the month. Construction output rose 1.6 percent, and energy production was higher by 5 percent than in May.

Compared to June 2012, industrial production advanced a working-day adjusted 2 percent, after recording a 1.2 percent decrease in May, which was revised down from a 1 percent contraction. Production was forecast to fall 0.3 percent year-on-year.

During the May-June period, industrial output moved up 1.3 percent from preceding two months ended April. There was a 0.5 percent year-on-year growth in output during the period.

According to the report, that sentiment indicators for the German industrial sector suggest that the current positive trend in production will continue in the coming months.

Today's outcome corroborates the government data, which came out yesterday, showing that new orders in the German manufacturing sector grew at the fastest pace in eight months in June, driven mainly by strong demand for big-ticket items.

In a sign that German factory sector has overcome its weakness, a recent survey compiled by Markit Economics showed that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index climbed to an 18-month high in July, supported by rising volumes of new work and higher production levels.

Reinforcing the upbeat outlook for the German industrial sector, survey data released by the Ifo Institute last month revealed that confidence among entrepreneurs rose for a third consecutive month in July.

The recent improvement in Germany's job market is also reflective of the upturn in industrial activity. In June, a statement from the Federal labor agency showed that the number of unemployed in the country declined for a second consecutive month in July.

The Bundesbank last month said it expects Germany's economic growth to weaken in the third quarter, following the second quarter's recovery. Earlier, the bank had lowered its growth outlook for this year to 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent. The economy is seen growing 1.5 percent in 2014.

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2013-08-07 17:42

Research: Flash German Hicp Inflation to Accelerate to 1.8% Yoy in June

Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research: -German HICP accelerated from 1. 1% yoy in April to 1. 6% yoy in May, on the back of higher food and services inflation. news.instaforex.com »

2013-06-24 19:07

Modest Gain In Eurozone PMI Revives Recovery Hopes

An indicator of Eurozone's private sector activity improved more than expected in May, renewing hopes that the economy is inching towards a recovery. Nonetheless, the indicator remained in negative territory, signaling sharp deterioration in overall business activity.

The composite output index, which measures the performance of the both manufacturing and service sectors, rose to a three-month high of 47.7 in May from 46.9 in April, flash results of a survey by Markit Economics showed Thursday.

Readings below 50 indicates contraction in activity. Economists had predicted an increase in the index to 47.2.

New orders across the private sector fell sharply again in May and for the twenty-second successive month. The rate of decline was unchanged from that seen in April, Markit said.

The modest improvement in May raises hopes that overall Eurozone economic activity is inching towards stabilization, said Howard Archer, Chief European and UK Economist at IHS Global Insight.

"It is worrying to see that the decline in new orders was unchanged at a significant level in May, so a seventh successive quarter of Eurozone GDP decline, albeit modest, remains very possible in the second quarter," Archer said.

The purchasing managers' index, a gauge of activity in the manufacturing sector, rose to 47.8 from April's score of 46.7. This was forecast to rise to 47. The manufacturing output index rose to a four-month high of 48.2 from 46.5 in April.

The services activity index edged up to 47.5 in May from 47 in the previous month, while expectations were for a modest increase to 47.2.

Eurozone's economic downturn eased in the first quarter with the gross domestic product falling at a slower pace of 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter.

In May, the European Commission cut its economic forecast for euro area and said the economy will contract 0.4 percent in 2013. The economy is expected to start recovering from its record-long recession in 2014.

"May's euro-zone PMI survey adds to the recent run of slightly more encouraging news from the region, but there is little sign that the region is about to emerge from recession," said Ben May, an economist at Capital Economics.

Earlier in the month, the European Central Bank reduced the main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to a record low 0.50 percent to support the economy. ECB Chief Mario Draghi has said that the monetary policy will remain accommodative "as long as needed."

Markit said that the employment at Eurozone's private sector firms fell for the seventeenth consecutive month, with the rate of job losses rising to the highest since February.

The survey found strong divergences between the region's two largest economies. Business activity declined for a second successive month in Germany, but the downturn was only very marginal. Meanwhile, a steep rate of decline in French activity was reported in May.

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2013-05-23 16:28

Spain's April Inflation Eases Notably As Estimated

Spain's harmonized inflation fell to 1.5 percent annually in April from 2.6 percent in March, final data from the statistical office INE revealed Tuesday. The annual rate matched flash estimate published on April 29.

At the same time, consumer price inflation eased to 1.4 percent, in line with flash estimate, from 2.4 percent a month ago.

The cost of communication logged the biggest annual fall of 4 percent annually, followed by a 0.7 percent drop in transportation. All other sub-components of CPI registered increases, with health and education rising 13 percent and 10.4 percent, respectively.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices rose by a moderate 2.6 percent and clothing and footwear by 0.2 percent.

Month-on-month, the harmonized index of consumer prices edged up 0.1 percent in April. The consumer price index gained 0.4 percent again, as seen in March.

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2013-05-14 12:42

German Private Sector Activity Contracts In April

German private sector contracted at the fastest pace in six months in April, ending a four-month period of expansion, preliminary results of a survey by Markit Economics showed Tuesday.

The flash composite output index, that gauges activity in both manufacturing and services, fell to 48.8 in April from 50.6 in March. Readings above 50 indicate expansion of the sector while readings below 50 suggest contraction.

The manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to a four-month low of 47.9 from 49 in March, suggesting further worsening of operating conditions across the factory sector. The manufacturing output index fell to a four-month low of 47.9 from 50 in March.

The services activity index fell to a six-month low of 49.2 in April from 50.9 in March.

Lower levels of private sector business activity reflected a decrease in new order volumes for the second successive month during April, Markit said.

The overall pace of contraction in new orders was the steepest since October 2012, largely driven by a marked decrease in new work received by service providers. Manufacturing new orders dropped at the fastest pace so far this year, the survey report said.

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2013-04-23 12:42

UK House Price Sentiment Rebounds In April: Knight Frank

Confidence among British households regarding the value of their homes rebounded in April, ending the downward trend seen for nearly three years, helped mainly by improved optimism regarding the governments' recently launched mortgage scheme, data from a survey by Markit Economics and Knight Frank showed Friday.

The house price sentiment index increased to 50.6 in April from 50 in March. The index moved above the no-change 50 mark - which separates growth from contraction - for the first time in thirty-four months.

"The latest survey suggests the Help to Buy scheme has boosted house price sentiment, alongside a continued improvement in mortgage availability and more concrete signs that current values are on the up," Markit senior economist Tim Moore said.

At the same time, the outlook component of the survey, showed that British households expect the value of their homes will rise over the next 12 months, and at the sharpest rate since June 2010.

The forward-looking indicator climbed to a 34-month high of 62 in April from 58.4 in March, marking the fourth successive increase. Residents of London continued to be the most upbeat about the outlook for prices, followed by those in South East and the East of England, data showed.

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2013-04-19 12:42

Japan Bank Loan Demand Increases In Q1

Japan's corporate loan demand improved in the first quarter as internally generated fund of customers decreased amid rising sales, the latest senior loan officer opinion survey published by the Bank of Japan showed Friday.

The balance of demand for loans from firms rose to 5 in the first quarter from 4 in the preceding quarter. Likewise, household demand increased to 14 from 11.

Loan officers cited the fall in interest rates as another reason for rise in corporate loan demand. The index for corporate loan demand is expected to remain unchanged at 5 in the second quarter.

The survey, however, showed that the index for demand from large firms eased to 4 from 5 in the fourth quarter. The survey was conducted among 50 banks between March 11 and April 10.

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2013-04-19 12:42

Chinese Yuan Spikes Up To More Than 3-month High Against U.S. Dollar

The Chinese yuan strengthened against the U.S. dollar in late Asian deals on Wednesday, as the People's Bank of China set the currency's reference rate at the highest level since January 15.

The yuan reached 6.2123 per dollar, the level not seen since December 14, 2012. The yuan thus appreciated 0.13 percent against the greenback from yesterday's close of 6.2202. If the yuan advances further, it will break last year's peak of 6.2087.

The PBOC set today's central parity rate for the yuan at 6.2716 per dollar, up from Tuesday's daily reference rate of 6.2758. The Chinese central bank sets the central parity rate every morning and allows the currency to fluctuate up to 1 % from the level.

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2013-03-20 10:32

French Feb Business Sentiment Improves As Expected

French business sentiment improved to 96 in February from 95 in January, survey data from the Bank of France showed Friday. The reading came in line with economists' expectations.

In February, industrial activity improved somewhat and deliveries showed signs of renewed growth in most sectors. However, production capacities remained only moderately solicited, it said.

Although order books are still considered insufficient, new orders edged up their volumes. At the same time, inventories of final goods remained close to targeted levels. Business managers' forecasts are predicting a stable level of activity in March.

According to the monthly index of business activity, the economy is expected to increase by 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2013, unchanged from the previous estimate.

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2013-03-08 12:42

Euro Off Highs Following French PMI, Spanish Unemployment Rate

The euro eased from its early highs against other other major currencies in the early European session on Thursday after the release of weaker-than-expected French PMI data and Spanish jobless rate for the fourth quarter. news.instaforex.com »

2013-01-24 12:42

Slump In UK Household Finances Eases In January: Markit

An index of personal finances of U.K. households declined at a slower pace in January, helped mainly by improved perceptions about inflation, job security and credit availability, data from a survey by Markit Economics showed Monday.

The seasonally adjusted household finance index, which is designed to anticipate changing consumer behavior, moved up to 37.7 in January from 36.8 in December, which was the lowest reading in seven months.

Around 31 percent of respondents noted a deterioration in their financial situation, compared to 6 percent that saw an improvement. An index reading below 50 indicates decline in confidence, while one above suggests improvement.

The measure of households' intention to make major purchases fell at the slowest pace since October 2010, while job security dropped the least since the survey began in early 2009.

The outlook component of the index showed that British households are the least pessimistic about prospects for their personal finances in the next twelve months. At the same time, sentiment regarding ease of access to unsecured credit turned the least downbeat in the four-year survey history.

"The unfavorable economic backdrop and squeezed incomes are clearly making it difficult to keep household finances on an even keel," Markit Senior Economist Tim Moore said.

"Overall, however, households are having to making hay while the sun isn't shining, and January's upturn from the lows of 2012 suggests that some gradual financial improvements are being made in spite of fragile conditions across the UK economy."

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2013-01-21 09:34

New Zealand ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Ticks Up In January

Confidence among New Zealand consumers increased in January as they remained upbeat about the general economic conditions, a survey by ANZ and Roy Morgan revealed Thursday.

The consumer confidence index rose to 118.3 in January from 114.7 in December. Readings above the 100 mark are taken as a net positive.

The current conditions index rose 8 points to 117, while future conditions index increased at the margin to 119, its highest level since mid 2011.

Consumers feel marginally less worse off financially than a year earlier with the corresponding index rising to -5 from -7 in the previous month.

The indicator measuring households' expectations regarding their own financial prospects in the year ahead fell marginally to 29 from 31 in December. However, the sentiment is still regarded as positive, the survey report said.

Consumers' outlook on the general economy one year ahead are better. Sentiment towards the economy five years out remains solid at 21, though down on the month prior, the report said.

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2013-01-17 07:46

U.K. Inflation Remains Unchanged In December

U.K. inflation remained stable at above 2 percent target in December adding to the central bank's concerns about a fragile economy.

Consumer price inflation was 2.7 percent for the third month in a row, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. The rate also came in line with economists' expectations.

Monthly inflation for December was 0.5 percent, which was faster than the 0.2 percent rise in November, and matched economists' expectations.

Housing and utility costs kept inflation high in December, adding 0.26 percentage points. On the other hand, the largest downward pressure came from transport costs.

Core inflation that excludes energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, slowed to 2.4 percent in December from 2.6 percent a month ago.

IHS Global Insight Chief U.K. Economist Howard Archer said increased energy tariffs and higher food prices could push inflation up to 3 percent early in 2013 and keep it there for a while. Depending on food and oil prices, inflation will fall back later this year, he said.

As inflation is likely to stay close to the December rate in the near-term, it will push real pay down further this year, observed Vicky Redwood, an economist at Capital Economics.

The Bank of England is set to publish its latest inflation and growth forecasts on February 13. Policymakers maintained quantitative easing at GBP 375 billion last week and the key interest rate at a record low 0.50 percent.

Retail prices gained 3.1 percent from a year ago, while it was forecast to rise 3 percent as seen in November. Likewise, the retail price index excluding mortgage interest payments, climbed 3 percent after rising 2.9 percent in November.

The ONS last week said the current calculation of the Retail Price Index should be continued without major changes so that it would not affect payments on inflation-linked bonds.

A separate report from the ONS showed that factory gate inflation edged up to 2.2 percent in December from 2.1 percent in the previous month. It was forecast to accelerate to 2.4 percent.

Due to a fall in petroleum product prices, the output price index for home sales of manufactured products fell 0.1 percent, which was less than a fall of 0.3 percent in November.

At the same time, input prices gained 0.3 percent on year, reversing last month's 0.1 percent drop. Meanwhile, the index slipped 0.2 percent from a month ago.

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2013-01-15 16:25

Eurozone Downturn Slows On German Recovery

The downturn in Eurozone slowed in December as the German private sector returned to growth, while contractions in the rest of the region remain worrying, survey results from Markit Economics showed Friday.

The composite Purchasing Managers' Index rose to a nine-month high of 47.3 in December from 46.5 in November. A reading below 50 suggests contraction.

"The survey is still consistent with euro area GDP falling for the third successive quarter," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.

The flash services PMI climbed more-than-expected to 47.8 from 46.7 in November. The index was forecast to rise to 47 in December. The manufacturing PMI, at the same time, edged up to 46.3 from 46.2 last month. The expected reading was 46.6.

Output continued to fall in manufacturing and services, though in both cases the rate of decline showed signs of moderating. The pace of decline of new business moderated, but the easing was only marginal.

The rate of job losses, at the same time, slowed in December, hitting the lowest since August. A stabilization of headcounts in Germany contrasted with falling employment in France and elsewhere across the Eurozone on average.

In the face of broad-based weakness in demand, inflationary pressures remained muted in December. Input prices rose at a slightly stronger rate, but the rate of increase has shown little overall change over the past four months.

Final data from Eurozone confirmed an easing in inflation to 2.2 percent in November. The decrease largely reflected a slowdown in energy price growth to 5.7 percent from 8 percent.

Germany's private sector expanded after contracting for eight straight months, underpinned by service sector recovery. The flash composite output index came in at 50.5 in December, an improvement on November's 49.2.

The German services PMI rose to 52.1 from 49.7 in November. Economists had forecast the index to rise to no-change level of 50. On the other hand, the manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly to 46.3 from 46.8 in the prior month.

Meanwhile, the Ifo institute on Thursday trimmed its 2013 GDP growth forecast to 0.7 percent from 1.3 percent. The think tank forecast the economy to contract in the fourth quarter of 2012, before staging a modest recovery in 2013.

Data today showed that the downturn in the French private sector output continued in December, but the rate of contraction slowed. The flash composite output index rose to 45, a 4-month high, from 44.3 in November.

The French services PMI climbed to 46, in line with expectations, from 45.8 a month ago. Likewise, the manufacturing PMI rose to 44.6 in December from 44.5 in November. The manufacturing PMI stayed slightly below the consensus forecast of 44.9.

Ernst & Young on Thursday said the Eurozone will shrink 0.2 percent next year. The firm expects euro area to enter 2013 with a brighter outlook than twelve months ago.

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2012-12-14 16:42

U.K. Jobless Claims Drop Unexpectedly, Employment At Record High

U.K. claimant count declined unexpectedly in November and employment reached a record through the three months to October, confounding the weakness in economic activity.

Claimant count dropped by 3,000 month-on-month to 1.58 million in November, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. Economists had forecast the figure to rise by 7,000. Claims rose by 6,000 in October, instead of the initially reported 10,100.

At the same time, the claimant count rate held steady at 4.8 percent, as widely expected for November.

Suggesting resilience in the labor market, the number of people out of work declined sharply, while employment increased during the three months ended October.

During the three-month period, there were 2.51 million unemployed people, down 82,000 from May to July, marking the biggest fall since 2001. The jobless rate held at 7.8 percent, matching economists' expectations.

The number of people in work totaled 29.601 million, up 40,000 from the May to July period. The U.K. saw the highest number of people in job since records began in 1971.

According to the Report on Jobs from Recruitment and Employment Confederation and KPMG, permanent placements in the U.K. increased at the fastest pace for 19 months in November. There was also a faster growth in job vacancies due to strong demand from private sector employers.

However, IHS Global Insight's Chief UK economist Howard Archer said there is a real danger that the increase in employment in private sector will not be enough to offset job cuts in the public sector and combat the increasing labor force.

Consequently, Archer said unemployment could trend up gradually to a peak of 2.65 million in late-2013/early-2014, giving an unemployment rate of 8.2 percent.

Moreover, the ONS data showed that total pay including bonus rose only 1.8 percent during three months to October from the corresponding period of last year. At the same time, regular pay, excluding bonuses climbed 1.7 percent.

Consumer price inflation at 2.7 percent in October indicates that real pay fall short to meet rising prices.

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2012-12-12 15:35