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Eurozone Oct Flash Services PMI Falls To 50.9 From 52.2 In Sep, Consensus 52.2
The recent "stream of good news" from Eurozone reduced the need for further interest rate reduction, European Central Bank's Ewald Nowotny said in an interview with the Bloomberg news agency.
"I would not see many arguments now for a rate cut," Nowotny, who heads Austria's central bank said. But the most recent developments will not have any immediate effects on the policy of the ECB.
The main refinancing rate remains at record low 0.50 percent. The interest rate was last reduced by a quarter-basis point in May.
Nowotny said he is "cautiously optimistic" about the economic outlook. The Eurozone recovery is weak, he noted.
The recovery in Germany and France helped the 17-nation euro currency bloc to exit recession in the second quarter. Eurozone GDP grew at a pace of 0.3 percent.
An indicator of Eurozone's private sector activity improved more than expected in May, renewing hopes that the economy is inching towards a recovery. Nonetheless, the indicator remained in negative territory, signaling sharp deterioration in overall business activity.
The composite output index, which measures the performance of the both manufacturing and service sectors, rose to a three-month high of 47.7 in May from 46.9 in April, flash results of a survey by Markit Economics showed Thursday.
Readings below 50 indicates contraction in activity. Economists had predicted an increase in the index to 47.2.
New orders across the private sector fell sharply again in May and for the twenty-second successive month. The rate of decline was unchanged from that seen in April, Markit said.
The modest improvement in May raises hopes that overall Eurozone economic activity is inching towards stabilization, said Howard Archer, Chief European and UK Economist at IHS Global Insight.
"It is worrying to see that the decline in new orders was unchanged at a significant level in May, so a seventh successive quarter of Eurozone GDP decline, albeit modest, remains very possible in the second quarter," Archer said.
The purchasing managers' index, a gauge of activity in the manufacturing sector, rose to 47.8 from April's score of 46.7. This was forecast to rise to 47. The manufacturing output index rose to a four-month high of 48.2 from 46.5 in April.
The services activity index edged up to 47.5 in May from 47 in the previous month, while expectations were for a modest increase to 47.2.
Eurozone's economic downturn eased in the first quarter with the gross domestic product falling at a slower pace of 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter.
In May, the European Commission cut its economic forecast for euro area and said the economy will contract 0.4 percent in 2013. The economy is expected to start recovering from its record-long recession in 2014.
"May's euro-zone PMI survey adds to the recent run of slightly more encouraging news from the region, but there is little sign that the region is about to emerge from recession," said Ben May, an economist at Capital Economics.
Earlier in the month, the European Central Bank reduced the main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to a record low 0.50 percent to support the economy. ECB Chief Mario Draghi has said that the monetary policy will remain accommodative "as long as needed."
Markit said that the employment at Eurozone's private sector firms fell for the seventeenth consecutive month, with the rate of job losses rising to the highest since February.
The survey found strong divergences between the region's two largest economies. Business activity declined for a second successive month in Germany, but the downturn was only very marginal. Meanwhile, a steep rate of decline in French activity was reported in May.
The downturn in Eurozone slowed in December as the German private sector returned to growth, while contractions in the rest of the region remain worrying, survey results from Markit Economics showed Friday.
The composite Purchasing Managers' Index rose to a nine-month high of 47.3 in December from 46.5 in November. A reading below 50 suggests contraction.
"The survey is still consistent with euro area GDP falling for the third successive quarter," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.
The flash services PMI climbed more-than-expected to 47.8 from 46.7 in November. The index was forecast to rise to 47 in December. The manufacturing PMI, at the same time, edged up to 46.3 from 46.2 last month. The expected reading was 46.6.
Output continued to fall in manufacturing and services, though in both cases the rate of decline showed signs of moderating. The pace of decline of new business moderated, but the easing was only marginal.
The rate of job losses, at the same time, slowed in December, hitting the lowest since August. A stabilization of headcounts in Germany contrasted with falling employment in France and elsewhere across the Eurozone on average.
In the face of broad-based weakness in demand, inflationary pressures remained muted in December. Input prices rose at a slightly stronger rate, but the rate of increase has shown little overall change over the past four months.
Final data from Eurozone confirmed an easing in inflation to 2.2 percent in November. The decrease largely reflected a slowdown in energy price growth to 5.7 percent from 8 percent.
Germany's private sector expanded after contracting for eight straight months, underpinned by service sector recovery. The flash composite output index came in at 50.5 in December, an improvement on November's 49.2.
The German services PMI rose to 52.1 from 49.7 in November. Economists had forecast the index to rise to no-change level of 50. On the other hand, the manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly to 46.3 from 46.8 in the prior month.
Meanwhile, the Ifo institute on Thursday trimmed its 2013 GDP growth forecast to 0.7 percent from 1.3 percent. The think tank forecast the economy to contract in the fourth quarter of 2012, before staging a modest recovery in 2013.
Data today showed that the downturn in the French private sector output continued in December, but the rate of contraction slowed. The flash composite output index rose to 45, a 4-month high, from 44.3 in November.
The French services PMI climbed to 46, in line with expectations, from 45.8 a month ago. Likewise, the manufacturing PMI rose to 44.6 in December from 44.5 in November. The manufacturing PMI stayed slightly below the consensus forecast of 44.9.
Ernst & Young on Thursday said the Eurozone will shrink 0.2 percent next year. The firm expects euro area to enter 2013 with a brighter outlook than twelve months ago.