Eavex Capital Research: Ukrainian Fixed Income Weekly

Ukrainian sovereign Eurobonds gained ground last week after the Finance Ministry managed to raise USD 350mn through placement of 2-year domestic USD-denominated bonds at 5.34%. Also, the country’s 2Q17 preliminary GDP growth figure of 2.4% YoY was better than expected given the headwinds created by Kyiv’s costly economic blockade of the Donbass occupied territories. However, the current pace of Ukraine’s economic growth remains rather unimpressive, and we would not be surprised if the full year ru.cbonds.info »

2017-8-21 17:10

ICU Research: Liquidity decreases

Last Thursday, there was a liquidity outflow, mostly via Treasury operations, mainly due to an increase in tax payments as the Treasury received UAH1.38bn more in revenues than the day before. However, as budget expenditures were lower than the previous day, the total impact of Treasury operations was UAH1.81bn. Cash and other non-monetary operations also had a negative impact on liquidity, and the total impact of non-monetary operations amounted to UAH2.23bn. As the NBU held no monetary operati ru.cbonds.info »

2017-7-24 13:10

US Treasuries: Treasuries Edge Higher

Prices in the U.S. rose less than expected in July, with the headline consumer price index adding 0.1% versus the Briefing.com consensus of 0.2% and the June reading of 0.3% The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.1% versus the Briefing.com consensus of 0.2% and the prior reading of 0.2%. The rise in the CPI, such as it was, was fueled by a 0.4% increase in housing costs. The reaction in the Tre ru.cbonds.info »

2015-8-20 12:55

S. Africa August Factory Output Growth Eases More Than Forecast

South Africa's manufacturing production rose at a significantly slower pace in August, and the growth rate was far below economists' forecast, latest data showed Thursday.

Manufacturing production edged up 0.2 percent in August from a year earlier, after expanding strongly by 5.5 percent in July, Statistics South Africa said. The expected growth rate was 1.2 percent.

The weakening of the output growth mainly reflected a 25 percent fall in the production of motor vehicles, parts and accessories and other transport equipment. Production of textiles, clothing, leather and footwear dropped by 0.9 percent.

Meanwhile, production in the food and beverages industry advanced 1.7 percent from August last year, and output of wood, wood products, paper, and publishing and printing articles rose by 6.4 percent.

On a monthly basis, seasonally adjusted manufacturing production fell sharply by 3.6 percent in August, which was faster than the 2 percent fall economists had forecast.

During the three months ended August, factory production increased 0.2 percent from the preceding three-month period, data showed.

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2013-10-10 17:38

ECB Leaves Key Refi Rate Unchanged At Record Low

The European Central Bank on Wednesday decided to hold fire on rates, as any tightening will be premature and dampen early signs of recovery in the region.

The 23-member rate-setting council left the main refinancing rate unchanged at a record low 0.50 percent for the fifth month. The previous change in rate was in May, when it was lowered by a quarter point.

The bank held the marginal lending facility rate at 1 percent and the deposit rate was also left unchanged at zero.

The governing council gathered in Paris instead of its usual venue in Frankfurt and the meeting was brought forward to Wednesday as it is a public holiday in Germany on Thursday.

ECB Chief Draghi is set to hold the post meeting press conference at 8.30 am ET.

Although ECB Chief Mario Draghi recently hinted at long-term refinancing operation and measures needed to address rising money market rates, economists see no major announcement later today. The markets expects LTRO only later this year.

Given the doubts over the effectiveness of more LTROs though, other new measures to stimulate lending may eventually be needed to sustain the recovery, said Ben May, an economist at Capital Economics.

Money market rates have shown signs of rising recently on talks of Federal Reserve's "tapering" of bond purchases.

Elsewhere, Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta faces a confidence vote today. Italy's political instability and its huge debt burden will weigh on the nation's borrowing costs and will once again trigger talks of ECB's bond buying program.

Last month, the ECB upgraded its 2013 economic outlook for the euro area, to show a 0.4 percent contraction, compared to the 0.6 percent GDP decline estimated in June. However, the growth projection for 2014 was cut to 1 percent from 1.1 percent.

Inflationary pressure remained subdued in the 17-nation bloc, with inflation falling to the lowest since early 2010 in September. Inflation is forecast to average 1.5 percent this year.

The sharp decline in lending to private sector together with low inflation amid nascent recovery is expected to prompt the central bank to keep its interest rates low for an extended period.

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2013-10-2 17:42

Euro Down Against Dollar, Pound As ECB Stands Pat

The euro was trading lower against the dollar and the pound on Thursday after the European Central Bank decided to hold its interest rate unchanged at a record of 0.50 percent.

The European Central Bank left its interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive month in August amid some improvement in economic indicators, which is in line with its expectation of a gradual recovery later this year.

The Governing Council led by ECB President Mario Draghi left the main refinancing rate steady at a record low 0.50 percent as expected. The rate was slashed by quarter-basis point in May, the first rate cut in nine months.

The bank also held the marginal lending facility rate at 1 percent, following a 50 basis points cut in May. The zero deposit rate was also left unchanged.

At the same time, the Eurozone manufacturing sector expanded for the first time since July 2011, survey data from Markit Economics showed today. The Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 50.3 in July, from 48.8 in June and above the flash estimate of 50.1.

As widely expected, the Monetary Policy Committee headed by Mark Carney retained the asset purchase facility at GBP 375 billion and interest rate at a record low 0.50 percent.

In the U.K., the seasonally adjusted Markit/Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply Purchasing Manager's Index rose more-than-expected to 54.6 in July from a revised reading of 52.9 in June. The index reading was forecast to improve to 52.8 from June's originally estimated level of 52.5.

The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept its ultra-loose monetary policy intact, voicing concerns over the recent rise in mortgage rates and low inflation. There was no language in the Fed's post-statement meeting that would suggest that the $85 billion a month asset-purchase program may be scaled back in the next few months.

The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) in China rose to 50.3 in July from 50.1 in the previous month, while a separate HSBC PMI survey showed factory activity shrank for a third straight month to its lowest level in 11 months. The headline PMI index fell to 47.7 from 48.2 in June.

The U.S. weekly jobless claims report showed that initial jobless claims fell to 326,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 345,000. The decrease surprised economists, who had expected jobless claims to edge up to 345,000 from the 343,000 originally reported for the previous week.

The euro slipped to a 2-day low of 0.8678 against the pound around 8:30 am ET, pulling back from Asian session's fresh 4-month high of 0.8768. The near-term support for the euro is seen around the 0.8660 level, at which the 10-day EMA lies in the currency cross.

The euro dropped below the key 1.32 level against the US dollar, falling to a weekly low of 1.3192 by 8:30 am ET. The euro-greenback pair is presently hovering around the 1.32 level with 1.3165 seen as the next likely support level.

The common currency held steady against the Swiss franc and the yen after the ECB rate decision. The euro-franc pair was trading in a range of 1.2310 and 1.2330 and the euro-yen pair was trading between 130.80 and 130.40.

news.instaforex.com »

2013-8-1 17:47

Slovenia's Unemployment Rate Drops To 13% In May

Slovenia's unemployment rate decreased from the previous month in June, data released by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia showed Tuesday.

The unemployment rate decreased to 13 percent in May from 13.3 percent in April. In May 2013, the jobless rate was 11.7 percent. Since February this year, the unemployment rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points.

There were 118,576 unemployed persons in Slovenia at the end of May, which was lower than 121,332 recorded in the previous month.

The jobless rate among youth, aged between 15 and 24, was 28.3 percent in May, lower than 29.1 percent recorded a month earlier.

At the same time, the number of persons in employment increased by around 2,400 month-on-month to 795,402 in May, continuing the trend began at the beginning of the year. The upturn was led by a notable rise in headcounts in the construction sector, data showed.

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2013-7-16 19:00

Japan April CPI 0.3%

Japan's inflation rate remained stable in April.

The Ministry of Finance reported Friday that the national core consumer price index rose 0.3 percent in April, matching the 0.3 percent rise in March.

for the full year to April, Core CPI was down 0.4 percent.

Overall CPI was up 0.3 percent on month and down 0.7 percent on year, the Ministry said.

For the Tokyo metropolitan region, overall CPI was down 0.2 percent on month.

Tokyo core CPI was up 0.1 percent on month.

news.instaforex.com »

2013-5-31 05:47

U.K. Inflation Remains Unchanged In December

U.K. inflation remained stable at above 2 percent target in December adding to the central bank's concerns about a fragile economy.

Consumer price inflation was 2.7 percent for the third month in a row, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. The rate also came in line with economists' expectations.

Monthly inflation for December was 0.5 percent, which was faster than the 0.2 percent rise in November, and matched economists' expectations.

Housing and utility costs kept inflation high in December, adding 0.26 percentage points. On the other hand, the largest downward pressure came from transport costs.

Core inflation that excludes energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, slowed to 2.4 percent in December from 2.6 percent a month ago.

IHS Global Insight Chief U.K. Economist Howard Archer said increased energy tariffs and higher food prices could push inflation up to 3 percent early in 2013 and keep it there for a while. Depending on food and oil prices, inflation will fall back later this year, he said.

As inflation is likely to stay close to the December rate in the near-term, it will push real pay down further this year, observed Vicky Redwood, an economist at Capital Economics.

The Bank of England is set to publish its latest inflation and growth forecasts on February 13. Policymakers maintained quantitative easing at GBP 375 billion last week and the key interest rate at a record low 0.50 percent.

Retail prices gained 3.1 percent from a year ago, while it was forecast to rise 3 percent as seen in November. Likewise, the retail price index excluding mortgage interest payments, climbed 3 percent after rising 2.9 percent in November.

The ONS last week said the current calculation of the Retail Price Index should be continued without major changes so that it would not affect payments on inflation-linked bonds.

A separate report from the ONS showed that factory gate inflation edged up to 2.2 percent in December from 2.1 percent in the previous month. It was forecast to accelerate to 2.4 percent.

Due to a fall in petroleum product prices, the output price index for home sales of manufactured products fell 0.1 percent, which was less than a fall of 0.3 percent in November.

At the same time, input prices gained 0.3 percent on year, reversing last month's 0.1 percent drop. Meanwhile, the index slipped 0.2 percent from a month ago.

news.instaforex.com »

2013-1-15 16:25

China 2012 Trade Growth Likely At 6%: Commerce Minister

China's foreign trade is likely to hit a growth rate of around 6 percent this year, Commerce Minister Chen Deming was quoted as saying by Xinhua news agency.

This was much below the official growth target of 10 percent. According to customs data, exports rose 2.9 percent year-on-year in November and imports recorded zero growth.

Chen also noted that the country's foreign direct investment will likely total $110 billion this year. Outbound direct investment by non-financial institutions will reach $70 billion in 2012, the minister was quoted as saying.

news.instaforex.com »

2012-12-28 09:42

U.K. Nov Budget Deficit Widens

The U.K. budget deficit widened to GBP 17.5 billion in November from GBP 16.3 billion a year ago, the Office for National Statistics said Friday. Economists had forecast a surplus of GBP 16 billion.

For April to November period, public sector net borrowing, excluding interventions, totaled GBP 64.7 billion, which was below last year's GBP 84.4 billion deficit.

The central government net cash requirement was GBP 12.4 billion, which was GBP 1.9 billion higher than in November 2011.

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2012-12-21 13:42