Eavex Capital Research: Ukrainian Fixed Income Weekly

Ukrainian sovereign Eurobonds gained ground last week after the Finance Ministry managed to raise USD 350mn through placement of 2-year domestic USD-denominated bonds at 5.34%. Also, the country’s 2Q17 preliminary GDP growth figure of 2.4% YoY was better than expected given the headwinds created by Kyiv’s costly economic blockade of the Donbass occupied territories. However, the current pace of Ukraine’s economic growth remains rather unimpressive, and we would not be surprised if the full year

Ukrainian sovereign Eurobonds gained ground last week after the Finance Ministry managed to raise USD 350mn through placement of 2-year domestic USD-denominated bonds at 5.34%. Also, the country’s 2Q17 preliminary GDP growth figure of 2.4% YoY was better than expected given the headwinds created by Kyiv’s costly economic blockade of the Donbass occupied territories. However, the current pace of Ukraine’s economic growth remains rather unimpressive, and we would not be surprised if the full year GDP growth figure comes in at less than 1.8%, which is the government’s current forecast.

Long-term benchmark Ukraine-27s added 1.1% to 99.3/100.3 (7.8%/7.7%) and quotes for Ukraine-19s (due in just over 2 years from now) edged up 0.3% to 103.9/104.4 (5.7%/5.5%). Meanwhile, the VRI derivatives (linked to Ukraine’s future GDP growth with expiration in 2040) continued their red-hot summer rally, jumping another 10% to 50.0/51.4 cents on the dollar.

In corporate debt papers, DTEK-24s advanced by 1.9% to 94.5/95.5 (11.9%/11.8%) after the company’s parent group SCM purchased the government’s 25% blocking stakes in KyivEnergo, ZakhidEnergo, and DonetsOblEnergo at privatization auctions held last week. There was a speculative 8.0% rebound in quotes for distressed UkrLandFarming-18s to 29.0/33.0 cents on the dollar. MHP-2024s were little changed at 103.4/103.9 (7.1%/7.0%) after the company reported fairly impressive financial results for 1H17. The company’s current debt-to-EBITDA ratio stands at 2.4x.

Quasi-sovereign issue UkrEximBank-23s inched up 0.2% to 95.6/96.9 (9.5%/9.2%). The National Bank said that in 1H17 Ukrainain banks increased retail loans in the domestic currency by 13.4% YoY. The growth in the retail loan portfolio suggests a recovery in banks’ appetite for lending amid rising household consumption. On the other hand, corporate lending remained subdued in 1H17, restrained by poor creditor rights protection and high credit risk in the corporate sector.

The yield on the government’s 2-year UAH-denominated bonds was unchanged at bid/ask of 15.20%/14.80%, with 1-year domestic hrvynia bonds standing at 14.70%.

growth and current economic was for domestic

2017-8-21 17:10

growth and → Ðåçóëüòàòîâ: 8 / growth and - ôîòî


Yield Curve Steepens

The U.S. Treasury market rallied modestly today in a curve-steepening trade as the S&P 500 lost 0.41% to 2,168.2. Reuters reported that six members of the European Central Bank's Governing Council told the news agency that only modest tweaks to the ECB's asset purchase program are likely despite sluggish growth in the euro area. Treasuries and eurozone sovereign debt were little-changed after the news. A panel of Regional Fed Presidents Mester, Kaplan, and Lockhart yielded few statements of sign ru.cbonds.info »

2016-09-26 09:59

Brazil's Manufacturing Sector Rebounds In October


Brazil's manufacturing sector expanded for the first time in four months in October, helped by a strong pick up in production, data from a survey by Markit Economics and HSBC Bank showed Friday.



The manufacturing purchasing managers' index, adjusted for seasonal variations, advanced to 50.2 in October from 49.9 in September. Readings above 50 signal growth, and those below indicate decline.



Brazilian companies raised their production levels in October, amid expectations of better economic conditions and forecasts of stronger client demand. Production growth was the quickest since May.



New business inflows stabilized during the month, following three successive months of contraction. Export orders, however, fell at the fastest pace since July.



Meanwhile, manufacturers reduced their workforce numbers further in October, stretching the current sequence of job shedding to seven months.



Elsewhere, a report released by statistical office IBGE today showed that Brazil's industrial production increased 2 percent year-on-year in September, after falling 1.2 percent in August. Economists had forecast a 3 percent growth for October.



Sequentially, seasonally adjusted industrial production moved up 0.7 percent, after staying flat in August. The monthly growth rate was forecast to be 1.3 percent.





news.instaforex.com »

2013-11-01 17:42

S. Africa August Factory Output Growth Eases More Than Forecast


South Africa's manufacturing production rose at a significantly slower pace in August, and the growth rate was far below economists' forecast, latest data showed Thursday.



Manufacturing production edged up 0.2 percent in August from a year earlier, after expanding strongly by 5.5 percent in July, Statistics South Africa said. The expected growth rate was 1.2 percent.



The weakening of the output growth mainly reflected a 25 percent fall in the production of motor vehicles, parts and accessories and other transport equipment. Production of textiles, clothing, leather and footwear dropped by 0.9 percent.



Meanwhile, production in the food and beverages industry advanced 1.7 percent from August last year, and output of wood, wood products, paper, and publishing and printing articles rose by 6.4 percent.



On a monthly basis, seasonally adjusted manufacturing production fell sharply by 3.6 percent in August, which was faster than the 2 percent fall economists had forecast.



During the three months ended August, factory production increased 0.2 percent from the preceding three-month period, data showed.





news.instaforex.com »

2013-10-10 17:38

KOF Upgrades Swiss Growth Forecast


Switzerland's economic growth will likely accelerate at a faster rate than estimated earlier, supported by stable domestic demand and an improvement in exports as the Eurozone recovery strengthens, revised estimates released by the KOF Economic Institute showed Monday.



The agency forecasts that gross domestic product will grow at a faster rate of 1.9 percent this year than 1 percent in 2012. The revised outlook marks an improvement from the 1.4 percent gain the the firm had predicted earlier.



Further, growth is expected to accelerate to 2.1 percent next year, slightly faster than the 2 percent estimated earlier. Going ahead, growth is seen gathering further momentum, and the economy will expand 2.3 percent in 2015.



According to KOF, an upturn in Switzerland's exports will contribute significantly to the economy in the coming months, shifting the dynamics of growth from domestic demand towards foreign demand. The firms expects Swiss exports to rise 4.2 on average in 2014.



Consumer prices will likely drop further by 0.2 percent this year, but will reverse the falling trend by recording increases of 0.5 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively, in 2014 and 2015.



At the same time, unemployment will remain low in the coming months, but will hardly fall any further despite the positive economic developments.



KOF further noted that the economic environment will make it easier for the Swiss National Bank to end its zero interest rate policy and allow it to gradually start raising short-term interest rates again from 2015 onwards.





news.instaforex.com »

2013-09-23 17:23

U.K. Retail Sales Growth Tops Expectations


British retail sales growth accelerated more-than-expected in July as the heatwave boosted food store sales, data showed Thursday.



Including automotive fuel, retail sales volume advanced 1.1 percent from the prior month, following a 0.2 percent rise in June, the Office for National Statistics said. Sales grew for the third month and the rate of growth was expected to rise moderately to 0.7 percent.



Sales that exclude automotive fuel also grew by 1.1 percent, which was faster than the 0.3 percent expansion seen in the previous month. The rate exceeded the consensus forecast of 0.6 percent.



Food store sales surged 2.5 percent, which was partially offset by a 0.3 percent drop in non-food store sales. Non-store retailing rose 1.7 percent in July.



According to a monthly survey carried out by the Confederation of British Industry, retailers expect sales volumes to increase again in the year through August after rising for the first time in five months in July.



Last week, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney assured that policymakers do not intend to hike interest rates from the current 0.50 percent, at least until the unemployment rate has fallen to a threshold of 7 percent.



However, Martin Beck, UK economist at Capital Economics said the resources to sustain growth in sales still look lacking with real pay set to continue falling into next year and households eating into their savings.



The ONS data today showed that all retailing including auto fuel climbed 3 percent annually, the biggest since January 2011. Sales were expected to grow by 2.4 percent after rising 1.9 percent each in June and May.



At the same time, annual growth in sales, excluding auto fuel, came in at 3.1 percent, up from June's 1.8 percent rise and above the 2.7 percent forecast.



At 2.1 percent, the volume of sales in the food sector increased at the fastest pace since April 2011. The amount spent increased 5.7 percent, the highest since September 2011.



The sunny weather boosted sales across a range of products, including food, alcohol, clothing and outdoor items.





news.instaforex.com »

2013-08-15 16:15