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Industrial production in the U. S. increased by slightly more than expected in the month of December, the Federal Reserve revealed in a report on Wednesday, with increased mining and manufacturing output more than offsetting a sharp drop in utilities output. news.instaforex.com »
U.K. inflation remained stable at above 2 percent target in December adding to the central bank's concerns about a fragile economy.
Consumer price inflation was 2.7 percent for the third month in a row, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. The rate also came in line with economists' expectations.
Monthly inflation for December was 0.5 percent, which was faster than the 0.2 percent rise in November, and matched economists' expectations.
Housing and utility costs kept inflation high in December, adding 0.26 percentage points. On the other hand, the largest downward pressure came from transport costs.
Core inflation that excludes energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, slowed to 2.4 percent in December from 2.6 percent a month ago.
IHS Global Insight Chief U.K. Economist Howard Archer said increased energy tariffs and higher food prices could push inflation up to 3 percent early in 2013 and keep it there for a while. Depending on food and oil prices, inflation will fall back later this year, he said.
As inflation is likely to stay close to the December rate in the near-term, it will push real pay down further this year, observed Vicky Redwood, an economist at Capital Economics.
The Bank of England is set to publish its latest inflation and growth forecasts on February 13. Policymakers maintained quantitative easing at GBP 375 billion last week and the key interest rate at a record low 0.50 percent.
Retail prices gained 3.1 percent from a year ago, while it was forecast to rise 3 percent as seen in November. Likewise, the retail price index excluding mortgage interest payments, climbed 3 percent after rising 2.9 percent in November.
The ONS last week said the current calculation of the Retail Price Index should be continued without major changes so that it would not affect payments on inflation-linked bonds.
A separate report from the ONS showed that factory gate inflation edged up to 2.2 percent in December from 2.1 percent in the previous month. It was forecast to accelerate to 2.4 percent.
Due to a fall in petroleum product prices, the output price index for home sales of manufactured products fell 0.1 percent, which was less than a fall of 0.3 percent in November.
At the same time, input prices gained 0.3 percent on year, reversing last month's 0.1 percent drop. Meanwhile, the index slipped 0.2 percent from a month ago.
Eurozone industrial production declined for the third consecutive month in November, confounding expectations for a recovery and signaled a severe downturn during the final quarter of 2012.
Industrial output slipped by 0.3 percent in November from a month ago, when it was down 1 percent, data published by Eurostat showed Monday. The decline was in contrast to a 0.2 percent rise forecast by economists.
On a yearly basis, industrial output decreased 3.7 percent, which was larger than the 3.3 percent decline logged in October and bigger than the expected 3.1 percent drop.
Intermediate goods production dropped at a slower pace of 0.3 percent, while the decline in production of energy accelerated to 1.6 percent. Only output of capital goods grew in November, up by 0.7 percent.
Non-durable consumer goods output declined 1.2 percent, offsetting the previous month's 1.2 percent growth.
Data showed that industrial production declined in sixteen member states and rose in five. Italy registered the biggest annual drop, down 7.6 percent. Meanwhile, Lithuania, Estonia and Malta registered strongest increases.
Capital Economics European Economist Ben May said the industrial sector is unlikely to kick start a recovery in the wider economy. So, expectations for a small decline in Eurozone GDP this year is too optimistic, the economist noted.
According to the purchasing managers' surveys for December, the downturn in the euro area eased, as the rate of contraction in economic output and new business slowed.
In December, the European Central Bank projected euro area GDP growth between -0.9 percent and 0.3 percent in 2013. The central bank expects a gradual recovery late this year.
At the same time, inflation is seen between 1.1 percent and 2.1 percent. At 2.2 percent, the current inflation rate remains above the ECB ceiling.
The total number of job advertisements in Australia was down 3.8 percent on month in December, a survey from ANZ revealed on Monday, falling for the 10th straight month to come in at 133,352.
That follows the upwardly revised 2.8 percent contraction in November (originally -2.9 percent).
Internet job ads dropped 3.9 percent in December, while newspaper ads fell 0.4 percent.
On a yearly basis, the total number of job ads was down 15.3 percent.
"Job advertising is a key barometer of economic activity and business confidence. Its ongoing weakness suggests that conditions for a large share of Australian businesses remain challenging and the outlook uncertain," Justin Fabo, ANZ's head of Australian economics, said in a statement.
A gauge measuring inflation in Australia came in higher by 0.4 percent on month in December, TD Securities said on Monday - after easing 0.1 percent in November.
On a yearly basis, CPI was called higher by 2.4 percent, dipping from 2.5 percent in the previous month.
That keeps inflation within the Reserve Bank of Australia's comfort zone, after the central bank trimmed interest rates last month by 25 basis points or 3.00 percent.
The RBA does not meet in January and will not decide until February 5 whether or not to take any further action on rates.
"We are of the view that the cash rate should remain at the already record low of three percent," TD Securities head of Asia-Pacific research Annette Beacher said in a statement.
With the data for the previous week downwardly revised, the Labor Department released a report on Thursday showing that first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits saw a modest increase in the week ended January 5th.
The report showed that initial jobless claims rose to 371,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 367,000.
Economists had expected jobless claims to drop to 362,000 from the 372,000 originally reported for the previous week.
Bank lending in China was weaker than expected in December, data from the People's Bank of China showed Thursday.
Financial institutions extended CNY 454.3 billion in new local currency loans last month, less than the CNY 550 billion expected by economists. This was also below CNY 522.9 billion loans approved in November.
In 2012, total lending in local currency hit CNY 8.2 trillion, up by around CNY 732 billion year-on-year. Foreign currency loans totaled $145.1 billion in 2012.
China's social financing, a measure of liquidity in the economy, stood at CNY 15.76 trillion last year.
PBoC said the country's broad money aggregate of M2 money supply increased 13.8 percent year-on-year in December to CNY 97.42 trillion. Narrow money or M1 totaled CNY 30.87 trillion, up 6.5 percent from the same month last year.
The total number of building permits in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 2. 9 percent in November, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday, standing at 13,307. news.instaforex.com »
Australia's retail sales unexpectedly declined in November amid sharp reduction in sales at department stores and in household goods category, the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday.
Retail sales fell 0.1 percent month-on-month to A$21.5 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis in November against expectations for a 0.3 percent growth. This followed a flat reading in October.
Sales of household goods declined 0.9 percent month-on-month in November and trade at department stores slipped 0.4 percent. There was zero growth in food retailing and 0.6 percent drop in clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing.
Retail sales in Australia continue to disappoint, following on from a soft report in October, Tom Kennedy, an economist at J. P. Morgan Australia, said. "What little strength that we have seen in the retail report over the past few months has largely been generated by food retailing, which is likely being driven by an increase in prices, rather than a surge in demand."
The economists said real consumption has been very soft during the final three months of the year.
Separately, the statistical office reported that job vacancies in Australia fell to 166,800 in September-November from 179,200 in the three months through August after adjusting for seasonal variations. This was the lowest level since May 2010.
In a report today, the Housing Industry Association (HIA) said that new home sales posted a second consecutive monthly improvement in November driven by higher demand for detached houses.
Home sales rose 4.7 percent in November. However, HIA said that sales still remained at quite low levels. In the three months to November, the volume of sales was 15.7 percent lower than in the same period in 2011.
Quotes from RBS:
-GBP continues to be more tightly correlated with risk markets such as equities than yield spreads. This looks set to continue until such time as investors worry more intently about the UK's twin deficits. We see equities remaining supported by low interest rates and the continued expansion of central bank balance sheets.
-For the Fed, the only two voices on the FOMC that really matter are Yellen and Bernanke, and they look set to continue their dovish stance. Given the recent historic correlation with equities, this suggests some support for GBP/USD.
-However, while the fiscal cliff has been avoided, discussions around the debt ceiling and spending cuts are short-term risks to market sentiment (USD positive). At the same time, the better cyclical position of the US is seen supporting the USD.
news.instaforex.com »Consumer spending in New Zealand rose for a third month in a row in December, a survey by Paymark showed Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted total spend through the Paymark network, which processes a large part of all electronic transactions in the country, increased 0. news.instaforex.com »
The Japanese government is planning around JPY 12 trillion in stimulus spending for the economy in the fiscal year 2012, reports said Monday. news.instaforex.com »
French service sector contracted at a faster pace in December, detailed results of the survey by Markit Economics showed Friday. The services activity index fell to 45. news.instaforex.com »
The Federal Reserve felt that the fiscal cliff drama had an adverse impact on the economy late in 2012, according to the minutes of the central bank's most recent policy making meeting.
Minutes from the December meeting showed that voting members were concerned about the Fed's ballooning balance sheet. However, the Fed continued to believe that its asset purchase plan would need to remain in place to see the U.S. economy through a potential rough patch.
Some members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee thought asset buying would be warranted though most of 2013.
The Fed offered a mixed assessment of the sluggish economic recovery, noting some improvement in employment and the housing market.
"The information reviewed at the December 11-12 meeting indicated that economic activity continued to increase at a moderate pace in recent months. Employment expanded further, and the unemployment rate declined slightly, on balance, from September to November but was still elevated," the minutes said.
Greece's manufacturing sector registered a further notable deterioration in December, survey from Markit Economics showed Wednesday.
The Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 41.4 from 41.8 in November. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector.
Production at Greek factories decreased at a sharp and accelerated rate in December, reflecting a further reduction in the receipt of new work in December.
Employment at Greek factories decreased markedly during December. Average purchasing costs rose solidly. Nevertheless, prices charged by Greek manufacturers continued to decrease.
Manufacturing activity in Australia contracted for a tenth consecutive month in December, a survey by Australian Industry Group showed Wednesday. news.instaforex.com »
British households injected a net total of GBP 8 billion into housing equity in the third quarter, a report on Housing Equity Withdrawal (HEW) from the Bank of England showed Monday. news.instaforex.com »
China's foreign trade is likely to hit a growth rate of around 6 percent this year, Commerce Minister Chen Deming was quoted as saying by Xinhua news agency.
This was much below the official growth target of 10 percent. According to customs data, exports rose 2.9 percent year-on-year in November and imports recorded zero growth.
Chen also noted that the country's foreign direct investment will likely total $110 billion this year. Outbound direct investment by non-financial institutions will reach $70 billion in 2012, the minister was quoted as saying.
The number of visitors to Turkey increased at a faster pace in November, data released by the Ministry of Tourism showed Tuesday. Visitor arrivals rose 2. news.instaforex.com »
The U.K. budget deficit widened to GBP 17.5 billion in November from GBP 16.3 billion a year ago, the Office for National Statistics said Friday. Economists had forecast a surplus of GBP 16 billion.
For April to November period, public sector net borrowing, excluding interventions, totaled GBP 64.7 billion, which was below last year's GBP 84.4 billion deficit.
The central government net cash requirement was GBP 12.4 billion, which was GBP 1.9 billion higher than in November 2011.
New Zealand's gross domestic product was up 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2012 compared to the previous three months, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday.
That missed forecasts for a rise of 0.4 percent following the downwardly revised increase of 0.3 percent in the second quarter (originally 0.6 percent).
On a yearly basis, GDP was up 2.5 percent - matching forecasts and slowing from 2.6 percent in the previous three months.
U.K. annual inflation held steady in November at the highest level since May on increases in food and energy bills, official data showed Tuesday.
Consumer price inflation stabilized at 2.7 percent in November, figures from the Office for National Statistics revealed Tuesday. Inflation was at a 34-month low of 2.2 percent in September.
The November rate came in line with economists' expectations, but continues to hover above the 2 percent target. The highest upward impact on inflation was from food prices and utility charges, while fuel prices exerted downward pressure.
Core inflation that excludes energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, also remained unchanged at 2.6 percent in November. The rate was forecast to rise marginally to 2.7 percent.
As inflation is set to stay between 2.5 percent and 3 percent for the best part of the next year due to increases in utility and food prices, the squeeze on households' spending power looks likely to persist throughout 2013, said Samuel Tombs at Capital Economics. Nonetheless, inflation will eventually fall to a very low rate.
IHS Global Insight's Chief UK economist Howard Archer said he expects consumer price inflation to fall to 2.2 percent by the end of 2013 and finally below 2 percent in 2014.
Month-on-month, consumer prices increased at a pace of 0.2 percent, in line with forecast, but slower than a 0.5 percent rise in October, data showed.
Retail price inflation, at the same time, slowed to 3 percent from 3.2 percent in October. Mortgage interest payments had a downward impact on the annual change.
Excluding mortgage interest payments, retail prices climbed 2.9 percent annually, down from 3.1 percent a month ago. Economists had forecast the annual rate to remain at 3.1 percent.
In a separate communique, the statistical office said factory-gate inflation slowed in November. Output price inflation fell to 2.2 percent in November from 2.6 percent a month ago. It was forecast to ease to 2.5 percent.
Meanwhile, core output price inflation that strips out food, beverages, tobacco and petroleum, held steady at 1.4 percent.
Annually, input prices slipped 0.3 percent in November after staying flat in October. On a monthly basis, the input price index edged up 0.1 percent, the same rate as seen in September and October.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday approved the disbursement of $1.17 billion to Ireland under the bailout program, saying that the country has advanced reforms and continued steadfast policy implementation even as economic growth slowed.
The lender, meanwhile, warned that the Irish government should defer any additional fiscal consolidation to 2015 to protect the recovery, if next year's growth were to disappoint.
The decision followed the completion of the eighth review of Ireland's economic performance under a program supported by a three-year loan arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility. The latest batch brings total disbursements under the program to $25.49 billion.
The arrangement is part of a financing package amounting to $111.9 billion or EUR 85 billion, which is also supported by the European Financial Stabilization Mechanism and European Financial Stability Facility, bilateral loans from Denmark, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, and Ireland's own contributions.
The IMF forecasts that Ireland would comfortably meet its 8.6 percent deficit target for 2012 despite health overruns and higher social welfare spending owing to high unemployment.
The economy is expected to record a gradual recovery, with growth of 1.1 percent in 2013 and 2.2 percent in 2014, with public debt expected to peak at 122 percent of GDP in 2013, the IMF said.
"All program targets have been met and a range of fiscal, financial, and structural reforms are in train," IMF's First Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair David Lipton said.
"The Medium-Term Fiscal Statement set out a phased path for considerable further fiscal consolidation to bring the budget deficit below 3 percent by 2015."
Quotes from Standard Chartered: -We expect the US to pick up as 2013 progresses. Housing activity is improving, and employment has posted steady gains. news.instaforex.com »
An indicator of French economic activity declined in October after moderate increases throughout the third quarter of 2012, the Conference Board said in a report on Monday. news.instaforex.com »
The downturn in Eurozone slowed in December as the German private sector returned to growth, while contractions in the rest of the region remain worrying, survey results from Markit Economics showed Friday.
The composite Purchasing Managers' Index rose to a nine-month high of 47.3 in December from 46.5 in November. A reading below 50 suggests contraction.
"The survey is still consistent with euro area GDP falling for the third successive quarter," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.
The flash services PMI climbed more-than-expected to 47.8 from 46.7 in November. The index was forecast to rise to 47 in December. The manufacturing PMI, at the same time, edged up to 46.3 from 46.2 last month. The expected reading was 46.6.
Output continued to fall in manufacturing and services, though in both cases the rate of decline showed signs of moderating. The pace of decline of new business moderated, but the easing was only marginal.
The rate of job losses, at the same time, slowed in December, hitting the lowest since August. A stabilization of headcounts in Germany contrasted with falling employment in France and elsewhere across the Eurozone on average.
In the face of broad-based weakness in demand, inflationary pressures remained muted in December. Input prices rose at a slightly stronger rate, but the rate of increase has shown little overall change over the past four months.
Final data from Eurozone confirmed an easing in inflation to 2.2 percent in November. The decrease largely reflected a slowdown in energy price growth to 5.7 percent from 8 percent.
Germany's private sector expanded after contracting for eight straight months, underpinned by service sector recovery. The flash composite output index came in at 50.5 in December, an improvement on November's 49.2.
The German services PMI rose to 52.1 from 49.7 in November. Economists had forecast the index to rise to no-change level of 50. On the other hand, the manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly to 46.3 from 46.8 in the prior month.
Meanwhile, the Ifo institute on Thursday trimmed its 2013 GDP growth forecast to 0.7 percent from 1.3 percent. The think tank forecast the economy to contract in the fourth quarter of 2012, before staging a modest recovery in 2013.
Data today showed that the downturn in the French private sector output continued in December, but the rate of contraction slowed. The flash composite output index rose to 45, a 4-month high, from 44.3 in November.
The French services PMI climbed to 46, in line with expectations, from 45.8 a month ago. Likewise, the manufacturing PMI rose to 44.6 in December from 44.5 in November. The manufacturing PMI stayed slightly below the consensus forecast of 44.9.
Ernst & Young on Thursday said the Eurozone will shrink 0.2 percent next year. The firm expects euro area to enter 2013 with a brighter outlook than twelve months ago.
The Swiss National Bank retained the currency ceiling and its key interest rate near zero as widely expected by economists, as the bank sees sluggish growth in the coming year.
The bank led by President Thomas Jordan decided on Thursday to maintain the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro.
The SNB said it will continue to enforce the floor rate with the 'utmost determination' as an appreciation of the Swiss franc would compromise price stability and would have serious consequences for the Swiss economy.
Further, the bank reiterated that it is prepared to buy foreign currency in 'unlimited quantities' to enforce the exchange rate.
The target range for the three-month Libor was maintained at 0.0-0.25 percent. The bank said it stands ready to take further measures at any time, if needed.
For 2012, the SNB forecasts consumer prices to fall 0.7 percent, compared to a 0.6 percent drop estimated at the September meeting.
The bank expects overall prices to ease 0.1 percent in 2013 and inflation at 0.4 percent in 2014. In the foreseeable future, there is no risk of inflation in Switzerland, it said. In September, the bank had estimated a 0.2 percent inflation for 2013.
According to the SNB, economic growth in Switzerland for the year 2012 is likely to remain unchanged at around 1 percent, in line with September forecast. For 2013, the bank expects growth of 1 percent-1.5 percent.
The economy grew 0.6 percent in the third quarter, strongly recovering from a 0.1 percent contraction in the previous three months.
Although real GDP in the third quarter increased following a temporary downturn, the SNB expects significant weakening in growth in the fourth quarter.
Even at current levels, the currency is likely to act as a drag on growth in the coming quarters, Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics said.
If Eurozone crisis re-escalate, safe haven flows into the currency may well pick back up again, providing a sterner test of the SNB's determination, he said.
The Swiss economic growth in 2013 is likely to be weaker than previously thought due to deteriorating global economic conditions, the State Secretariat For Economic Affairs (SECO) suggested Thursday.
Gross domestic product is now expected to grow 1.3 percent next year, at a slightly weaker pace than the 1.4 percent growth forecast in September. The GDP projection for this year was left unchanged at 1 percent. Growth is seen picking up momentum further in 2014 with the GDP expanding 2 percent
The KOF Institute last week lowered the Swiss economic growth, citing weaker exports and investments. It projects 1.2 percent growth for next year.
Earlier, the SNB had introduced a countercyclical capital buffer allowing the Federal Council to increase the capital buffer of banks depending on potential excesses in the Swiss credit market. ING Bank NV's economist Julien Manceaux expects this facility to be used in 2013.
U.K. claimant count declined unexpectedly in November and employment reached a record through the three months to October, confounding the weakness in economic activity.
Claimant count dropped by 3,000 month-on-month to 1.58 million in November, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. Economists had forecast the figure to rise by 7,000. Claims rose by 6,000 in October, instead of the initially reported 10,100.
At the same time, the claimant count rate held steady at 4.8 percent, as widely expected for November.
Suggesting resilience in the labor market, the number of people out of work declined sharply, while employment increased during the three months ended October.
During the three-month period, there were 2.51 million unemployed people, down 82,000 from May to July, marking the biggest fall since 2001. The jobless rate held at 7.8 percent, matching economists' expectations.
The number of people in work totaled 29.601 million, up 40,000 from the May to July period. The U.K. saw the highest number of people in job since records began in 1971.
According to the Report on Jobs from Recruitment and Employment Confederation and KPMG, permanent placements in the U.K. increased at the fastest pace for 19 months in November. There was also a faster growth in job vacancies due to strong demand from private sector employers.
However, IHS Global Insight's Chief UK economist Howard Archer said there is a real danger that the increase in employment in private sector will not be enough to offset job cuts in the public sector and combat the increasing labor force.
Consequently, Archer said unemployment could trend up gradually to a peak of 2.65 million in late-2013/early-2014, giving an unemployment rate of 8.2 percent.
Moreover, the ONS data showed that total pay including bonus rose only 1.8 percent during three months to October from the corresponding period of last year. At the same time, regular pay, excluding bonuses climbed 1.7 percent.
Consumer price inflation at 2.7 percent in October indicates that real pay fall short to meet rising prices.
Consumer price inflation in Slovakia weakened in November, after rising in the previous month, data released by the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic showed Wednesday. news.instaforex.com »
Germany's harmonized index of consumer prices rose less than estimated in the preliminary report in November, final figures published by the Federal Statistical Office showed Wednesday.
The HICP inflation was 1.9 percent in November, a tad below 2 percent reported initially. On a monthly basis, HICP fell 0.2 percent compared with 0.1 percent fall reported earlier.
The CPI rose 1.9 percent year-on-year and fell 0.1 percent on a monthly basis in November. The figures matched the preliminary estimates.
In October, CPI inflation was 2 percent. The slight decrease of the inflation rate in November is largely due to energy prices.
Energy prices rose 3.8 percent year-on-year in November, which is a smaller increase than in the months before. Not considering energy prices, the rate of inflation has remained constant at 1.6 percent.
Germany's economic confidence turned positive in December for the first time since May 2012 as the largest euro area economy is expected to avoid a recession, a closely watched survey of financial market experts showed Tuesday.
The Indicator of Economic Sentiment climbed sharply by 22.6 points to 6.9 for December, survey from the ZEW Centre for European Economic Research revealed. Economists had forecast the reading to improve to -11.5.
Positive development in the U.S. also contributed to the improvement, which spurred the hope that the global economy will gain momentum. "The financial market experts forecast the development of the economic activity in 2013 with pre-Christmas optimism," said ZEW President Wolfgang Franz.
Although the cooling down of the economic activity will last until the beginning of 2013, Germany will not have to face a recession, provided the crises in the Eurozone do not deepen once again, he added.
The assessment of the current economic situation in Germany remained almost unchanged in December. The corresponding indicator gained 0.3 points to 5.7.
In contrast to the findings of ZEW survey, the German economic ministry today said the activity will weaken further in the final quarter of 2012. For the coming months, leading indicators show a dim picture, but with bright spots, it said in a statement.
The German economy grew 0.2 percent in the third quarter. Citing widespread uncertainty and difficult economic situation in parts of the euro area, the Bundesbank last week slashed its 2013 growth forecast for Germany to 0.4 percent from 1.6 percent.
Economic expectations for the Eurozone rose by 10.2 points to 7.6 points, the survey showed. The indicator for the current economic situation, at the same time, came in at -79.9 points-mark, up 0.4 points from the prior month.
The European Central Bank cut its economic forecasts for the euro area last week. The central bank projects GDP contractions of 0.5 percent this year and 0.3 percent in 2013. The economy is expected to recover in 2014 with a growth of 1.2 percent.
