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Ireland To Record Stronger Growth This Year: IBEC


The Irish economy has stabilized in the second half of last year and is set to grow at a faster pace in 2013, marking the third successive year of reasonably solid growth, the Irish Business and Employers Confederation (IBEC) said Monday.



The IBEC, in its latest quarterly outlook, said that 2013 would mark a turning point for the Irish economy, with GDP growing 1.8 percent on the back of strong domestic demand and exports. The recovery is expected to gain further momentum in 2014.



"Although many Irish households continue to grapple with debt and unemployment, there is growing evidence that 2013 could be a turning point for the domestic economy," IBEC Chief Economist Fergal O'Brien said.



The estimated growth for this year represents an improvement from the 1.2 percent expansion projected for last year, which was supported by another record performance by the export sector. Ireland is the second fastest growing Eurozone economy in 2012.



Driving the recovery, private sector employment improved significantly in the third quarter of last year, and retail sales finished the year on a positive note. At the same time, the housing sector has seen prices stabilizing and housing transactions and new mortgage activity increasing, IBEC said.



The employers' group predicted that Ireland is set to record an annual inflation rate of 1.5 percent this year, which will move up to less than 2 percent in 2014.



At the same time, unemployment is forecast to stabilize and to remain high for some time, while private sector employment will start recovering with a modest growth of 0.4 percent in 2013.



"Exports continue to perform strongly, despite difficult trading conditions. Importantly, we're seeing more businesses successfully making the transition from domestic sales to exports, and progress continues in developing new markets," O'Brien added.





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2013-1-21 15:42

U.K. Inflation Remains Unchanged In December


U.K. inflation remained stable at above 2 percent target in December adding to the central bank's concerns about a fragile economy.



Consumer price inflation was 2.7 percent for the third month in a row, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. The rate also came in line with economists' expectations.



Monthly inflation for December was 0.5 percent, which was faster than the 0.2 percent rise in November, and matched economists' expectations.



Housing and utility costs kept inflation high in December, adding 0.26 percentage points. On the other hand, the largest downward pressure came from transport costs.



Core inflation that excludes energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, slowed to 2.4 percent in December from 2.6 percent a month ago.



IHS Global Insight Chief U.K. Economist Howard Archer said increased energy tariffs and higher food prices could push inflation up to 3 percent early in 2013 and keep it there for a while. Depending on food and oil prices, inflation will fall back later this year, he said.



As inflation is likely to stay close to the December rate in the near-term, it will push real pay down further this year, observed Vicky Redwood, an economist at Capital Economics.



The Bank of England is set to publish its latest inflation and growth forecasts on February 13. Policymakers maintained quantitative easing at GBP 375 billion last week and the key interest rate at a record low 0.50 percent.



Retail prices gained 3.1 percent from a year ago, while it was forecast to rise 3 percent as seen in November. Likewise, the retail price index excluding mortgage interest payments, climbed 3 percent after rising 2.9 percent in November.



The ONS last week said the current calculation of the Retail Price Index should be continued without major changes so that it would not affect payments on inflation-linked bonds.



A separate report from the ONS showed that factory gate inflation edged up to 2.2 percent in December from 2.1 percent in the previous month. It was forecast to accelerate to 2.4 percent.



Due to a fall in petroleum product prices, the output price index for home sales of manufactured products fell 0.1 percent, which was less than a fall of 0.3 percent in November.



At the same time, input prices gained 0.3 percent on year, reversing last month's 0.1 percent drop. Meanwhile, the index slipped 0.2 percent from a month ago.





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2013-1-15 16:25

Eurozone Industrial Output Falls For Third Month


Eurozone industrial production declined for the third consecutive month in November, confounding expectations for a recovery and signaled a severe downturn during the final quarter of 2012.



Industrial output slipped by 0.3 percent in November from a month ago, when it was down 1 percent, data published by Eurostat showed Monday. The decline was in contrast to a 0.2 percent rise forecast by economists.



On a yearly basis, industrial output decreased 3.7 percent, which was larger than the 3.3 percent decline logged in October and bigger than the expected 3.1 percent drop.



Intermediate goods production dropped at a slower pace of 0.3 percent, while the decline in production of energy accelerated to 1.6 percent. Only output of capital goods grew in November, up by 0.7 percent.



Non-durable consumer goods output declined 1.2 percent, offsetting the previous month's 1.2 percent growth.



Data showed that industrial production declined in sixteen member states and rose in five. Italy registered the biggest annual drop, down 7.6 percent. Meanwhile, Lithuania, Estonia and Malta registered strongest increases.



Capital Economics European Economist Ben May said the industrial sector is unlikely to kick start a recovery in the wider economy. So, expectations for a small decline in Eurozone GDP this year is too optimistic, the economist noted.



According to the purchasing managers' surveys for December, the downturn in the euro area eased, as the rate of contraction in economic output and new business slowed.



In December, the European Central Bank projected euro area GDP growth between -0.9 percent and 0.3 percent in 2013. The central bank expects a gradual recovery late this year.



At the same time, inflation is seen between 1.1 percent and 2.1 percent. At 2.2 percent, the current inflation rate remains above the ECB ceiling.





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2013-1-14 16:34

Australia Retail Sales Post Surprise Fall


Australia's retail sales unexpectedly declined in November amid sharp reduction in sales at department stores and in household goods category, the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday.



Retail sales fell 0.1 percent month-on-month to A$21.5 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis in November against expectations for a 0.3 percent growth. This followed a flat reading in October.



Sales of household goods declined 0.9 percent month-on-month in November and trade at department stores slipped 0.4 percent. There was zero growth in food retailing and 0.6 percent drop in clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing.



Retail sales in Australia continue to disappoint, following on from a soft report in October, Tom Kennedy, an economist at J. P. Morgan Australia, said. "What little strength that we have seen in the retail report over the past few months has largely been generated by food retailing, which is likely being driven by an increase in prices, rather than a surge in demand."



The economists said real consumption has been very soft during the final three months of the year.



Separately, the statistical office reported that job vacancies in Australia fell to 166,800 in September-November from 179,200 in the three months through August after adjusting for seasonal variations. This was the lowest level since May 2010.



In a report today, the Housing Industry Association (HIA) said that new home sales posted a second consecutive monthly improvement in November driven by higher demand for detached houses.



Home sales rose 4.7 percent in November. However, HIA said that sales still remained at quite low levels. In the three months to November, the volume of sales was 15.7 percent lower than in the same period in 2011.





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2013-1-9 09:09

Research: Gbp Continues to be more Tightly correlated With Risk Markets

Quotes from RBS:


-GBP continues to be more tightly correlated with risk markets such as equities than yield spreads. This looks set to continue until such time as investors worry more intently about the UK's twin deficits. We see equities remaining supported by low interest rates and the continued expansion of central bank balance sheets.


-For the Fed, the only two voices on the FOMC that really matter are Yellen and Bernanke, and they look set to continue their dovish stance. Given the recent  historic correlation with equities, this suggests some support for GBP/USD.


-However, while the fiscal cliff has been avoided, discussions around the debt ceiling and spending cuts are short-term risks to market sentiment (USD positive). At the same time, the better cyclical position of the US is seen supporting the USD.

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2013-1-8 12:02

U.K. Inflation Steady At 2.7%


U.K. annual inflation held steady in November at the highest level since May on increases in food and energy bills, official data showed Tuesday.



Consumer price inflation stabilized at 2.7 percent in November, figures from the Office for National Statistics revealed Tuesday. Inflation was at a 34-month low of 2.2 percent in September.



The November rate came in line with economists' expectations, but continues to hover above the 2 percent target. The highest upward impact on inflation was from food prices and utility charges, while fuel prices exerted downward pressure.



Core inflation that excludes energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, also remained unchanged at 2.6 percent in November. The rate was forecast to rise marginally to 2.7 percent.



As inflation is set to stay between 2.5 percent and 3 percent for the best part of the next year due to increases in utility and food prices, the squeeze on households' spending power looks likely to persist throughout 2013, said Samuel Tombs at Capital Economics. Nonetheless, inflation will eventually fall to a very low rate.



IHS Global Insight's Chief UK economist Howard Archer said he expects consumer price inflation to fall to 2.2 percent by the end of 2013 and finally below 2 percent in 2014.



Month-on-month, consumer prices increased at a pace of 0.2 percent, in line with forecast, but slower than a 0.5 percent rise in October, data showed.



Retail price inflation, at the same time, slowed to 3 percent from 3.2 percent in October. Mortgage interest payments had a downward impact on the annual change.



Excluding mortgage interest payments, retail prices climbed 2.9 percent annually, down from 3.1 percent a month ago. Economists had forecast the annual rate to remain at 3.1 percent.



In a separate communique, the statistical office said factory-gate inflation slowed in November. Output price inflation fell to 2.2 percent in November from 2.6 percent a month ago. It was forecast to ease to 2.5 percent.



Meanwhile, core output price inflation that strips out food, beverages, tobacco and petroleum, held steady at 1.4 percent.



Annually, input prices slipped 0.3 percent in November after staying flat in October. On a monthly basis, the input price index edged up 0.1 percent, the same rate as seen in September and October.





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2012-12-18 15:42

Ireland Gets $1.17 Bln IMF Loan Under Bailout Program


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday approved the disbursement of $1.17 billion to Ireland under the bailout program, saying that the country has advanced reforms and continued steadfast policy implementation even as economic growth slowed.



The lender, meanwhile, warned that the Irish government should defer any additional fiscal consolidation to 2015 to protect the recovery, if next year's growth were to disappoint.



The decision followed the completion of the eighth review of Ireland's economic performance under a program supported by a three-year loan arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility. The latest batch brings total disbursements under the program to $25.49 billion.



The arrangement is part of a financing package amounting to $111.9 billion or EUR 85 billion, which is also supported by the European Financial Stabilization Mechanism and European Financial Stability Facility, bilateral loans from Denmark, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, and Ireland's own contributions.



The IMF forecasts that Ireland would comfortably meet its 8.6 percent deficit target for 2012 despite health overruns and higher social welfare spending owing to high unemployment.



The economy is expected to record a gradual recovery, with growth of 1.1 percent in 2013 and 2.2 percent in 2014, with public debt expected to peak at 122 percent of GDP in 2013, the IMF said.



"All program targets have been met and a range of fiscal, financial, and structural reforms are in train," IMF's First Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair David Lipton said.



"The Medium-Term Fiscal Statement set out a phased path for considerable further fiscal consolidation to bring the budget deficit below 3 percent by 2015."





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2012-12-18 11:12

U.K. Jobless Claims Drop Unexpectedly, Employment At Record High


U.K. claimant count declined unexpectedly in November and employment reached a record through the three months to October, confounding the weakness in economic activity.



Claimant count dropped by 3,000 month-on-month to 1.58 million in November, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. Economists had forecast the figure to rise by 7,000. Claims rose by 6,000 in October, instead of the initially reported 10,100.



At the same time, the claimant count rate held steady at 4.8 percent, as widely expected for November.



Suggesting resilience in the labor market, the number of people out of work declined sharply, while employment increased during the three months ended October.



During the three-month period, there were 2.51 million unemployed people, down 82,000 from May to July, marking the biggest fall since 2001. The jobless rate held at 7.8 percent, matching economists' expectations.



The number of people in work totaled 29.601 million, up 40,000 from the May to July period. The U.K. saw the highest number of people in job since records began in 1971.



According to the Report on Jobs from Recruitment and Employment Confederation and KPMG, permanent placements in the U.K. increased at the fastest pace for 19 months in November. There was also a faster growth in job vacancies due to strong demand from private sector employers.



However, IHS Global Insight's Chief UK economist Howard Archer said there is a real danger that the increase in employment in private sector will not be enough to offset job cuts in the public sector and combat the increasing labor force.



Consequently, Archer said unemployment could trend up gradually to a peak of 2.65 million in late-2013/early-2014, giving an unemployment rate of 8.2 percent.



Moreover, the ONS data showed that total pay including bonus rose only 1.8 percent during three months to October from the corresponding period of last year. At the same time, regular pay, excluding bonuses climbed 1.7 percent.



Consumer price inflation at 2.7 percent in October indicates that real pay fall short to meet rising prices.





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2012-12-12 15:35

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